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Many scientific and engineering challenges -- ranging from personalized medicine to customized marketing recommendations -- require an understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric causal forest…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-11 Stefan Wager , Susan Athey

Random Forest (Breiman, 2001) is a successful and widely used regression and classification algorithm. Part of its appeal and reason for its versatility is its (implicit) construction of a kernel-type weighting function on training data,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-13 Domagoj Ćevid , Loris Michel , Jeffrey Näf , Nicolai Meinshausen , Peter Bühlmann

Conditional distribution is a fundamental quantity for describing the relationship between a response and a predictor. We propose a Wasserstein generative approach to learning a conditional distribution. The proposed approach uses a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-21 Shiao Liu , Xingyu Zhou , Yuling Jiao , Jian Huang

Random forests have become an established tool for classification and regression, in particular in high-dimensional settings and in the presence of complex predictor-response relationships. For bounded outcome variables restricted to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-21 Leonie Weinhold , Matthias Schmid , Marvin N. Wright , Moritz Berger

Random forests are a learning algorithm proposed by Breiman [Mach. Learn. 45 (2001) 5--32] that combines several randomized decision trees and aggregates their predictions by averaging. Despite its wide usage and outstanding practical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-08-11 Erwan Scornet , Gérard Biau , Jean-Philippe Vert

Recursive decision trees are widely used to estimate heterogeneous causal treatment effects in experimental and observational studies. These methods are typically implemented using CART-type recursive partitioning and are often viewed as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-19 Matias D. Cattaneo , Jason M. Klusowski , Ruiqi Rae Yu

The Distributional Random Forest (DRF) is a recently introduced Random Forest algorithm to estimate multivariate conditional distributions. Due to its general estimation procedure, it can be employed to estimate a wide range of targets such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-20 Jeffrey Näf , Corinne Emmenegger , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

To further develop the statistical inference problem for heterogeneous treatment effects, this paper builds on Breiman's (2001) random forest tree (RFT)and Wager et al.'s (2018) causal tree to parameterize the nonparametric problem using…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-03-15 Lai Xinglin

We extend the celebrated Stone's theorem to the framework of distributional regression. More precisely, we prove that weighted empirical distribution with local probability weights satisfying the conditions of Stone's theorem provide…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-03 Clément Dombry , Thibault Modeste , Romain Pic

Wasserstein barycenters and variance-like criteria based on the Wasserstein distance are used in many problems to analyze the homogeneity of collections of distributions and structural relationships between the observations. We propose the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-31 Eustasio Del Barrio , Paula Gordaliza , Hélène Lescornel , Jean-Michel Loubes

In this paper, we propose a new and unified approach for nonparametric regression and conditional distribution learning. Our approach simultaneously estimates a regression function and a conditional generator using a generative learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-28 Shanshan Song , Tong Wang , Guohao Shen , Yuanyuan Lin , Jian Huang

Decision tree learning is increasingly being used for pointwise inference. Important applications include causal heterogenous treatment effects and dynamic policy decisions, as well as conditional quantile regression and design of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-08 Matias D. Cattaneo , Jason M. Klusowski , Peter M. Tian

Given an ensemble of randomized regression trees, it is possible to restructure them as a collection of multilayered neural networks with particular connection weights. Following this principle, we reformulate the random forest method of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-04 Gérard Biau , Erwan Scornet , Johannes Welbl

This paper presents a unified approach based on Wasserstein distance to derive concentration bounds for empirical estimates for two broad classes of risk measures defined in the paper. The classes of risk measures introduced include as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-11 Prashanth L. A. , Sanjay P. Bhat

We propose a theoretical study of two realistic estimators of conditional distribution functions and conditional quantiles using random forests. The estimation process uses the bootstrap samples generated from the original dataset when…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-30 Kevin Elie-Dit-Cosaque , Véronique Maume-Deschamps

Fairness testing evaluates whether a model satisfies a specified fairness criterion across different groups, yet most research has focused on classification models, leaving regression models underexplored. This paper introduces a framework…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Wanxin Li , Yongjin P. Park , Khanh Dao Duc

This paper examines from an experimental perspective random forests, the increasingly used statistical method for classification and regression problems introduced by Leo Breiman in 2001. It first aims at confirming, known but sparse,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2008-11-24 Robin Genuer , Jean-Michel Poggi , Christine Tuleau

In this paper we study the problems of estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental or observational studies and conducting inference about the magnitude of the differences in treatment effects across subsets of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-08 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

Generating samples given a specific label requires estimating conditional distributions. We derive a tractable upper bound of the Wasserstein distance between conditional distributions to lay the theoretical groundwork to learn conditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-29 Young-geun Kim , Kyungbok Lee , Youngwon Choi , Joong-Ho Won , Myunghee Cho Paik

We propose the orthogonal random forest, an algorithm that combines Neyman-orthogonality to reduce sensitivity with respect to estimation error of nuisance parameters with generalized random forests (Athey et al., 2017)--a flexible…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-27 Miruna Oprescu , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Zhiwei Steven Wu
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