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Under model misspecification, the MLE generally converges to the pseudo-true parameter, the parameter corresponding to the distribution within the model that is closest to the distribution from which the data are sampled. In many problems,…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-11-02 Peter Hoff , Jon Wakefield

Estimation of parameters that obey specific constraints is crucial in statistics and machine learning; for example, when parameters are required to satisfy boundedness, monotonicity, or linear inequalities. Traditional approaches impose…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Lachlan Astfalck , Deborshee Sen , Sayan Patra , Edward Cripps , David Dunson

Motivated by the increasing use of and rapid changes in array technologies, we consider the prediction problem of fitting a linear regression relating a continuous outcome $Y$ to a large number of covariates $\mathbf {X}$, for example,…

Applications · Statistics 2014-01-13 Philip S. Boonstra , Bhramar Mukherjee , Jeremy M. G. Taylor

This paper aims at developing a quasi-Bayesian analysis of the nonparametric instrumental variables model, with a focus on the asymptotic properties of quasi-posterior distributions. In this paper, instead of assuming a distributional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-21 Kengo Kato

Using observation data to estimate unknown parameters in computational models is broadly important. This task is often challenging because solutions are non-unique due to the complexity of the model and limited observation data. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-18 Jiacheng Wu , Jian-Xun Wang , Shawn C. Shadden

Data transformations are essential for broad applicability of parametric regression models. However, for Bayesian analysis, joint inference of the transformation and model parameters typically involves restrictive parametric transformations…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-29 Daniel R. Kowal , Bohan Wu

Bayesian methods are a popular choice for statistical inference in small-data regimes due to the regularization effect induced by the prior. In the context of density estimation, the standard nonparametric Bayesian approach is to target the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Sahra Ghalebikesabi , Chris Holmes , Edwin Fong , Brieuc Lehmann

For many important problems the quantity of interest is an unknown function of the parameters, which is a random vector with known statistics. Since the dependence of the output on this random vector is unknown, the challenge is to identify…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-28 Themistoklis P. Sapsis

This article tackles the old problem of prediction via a nonparametric transformation model (NTM) in a new Bayesian way. Estimation of NTMs is known challenging due to model unidentifiability though appealing because of its robust…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-08 Chong Zhong , Jin Yang , Junshan Shen , Catherine Liu , Zhaohai Li

We discuss Bayesian nonparametric procedures for the regression analysis of compositional responses, that is, data supported on a multivariate simplex. The procedures are based on a modified class of multivariate Bernstein polynomials and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 Claudia Wehrhahn , Andrés F. Barrientos , Alejandro Jara

Empirical Bayes small area estimation based on the well-known Fay-Herriot model may produce unreliable estimates when outlying areas exist. Existing robust methods against outliers or model misspecification are generally inefficient when…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-28 Daisuke Kurisu , Takuya Ishihara , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We describe a hierarchical Bayesian approach for inference about a parameter $\theta$ lower-bounded by $\alpha$ with uncertain $\alpha$, derive some basic identities for posterior analysis about $(\theta,\alpha)$, and provide illustrations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-08 Éric Marchand , Theodoros Nicoleris

This work considers Bayesian inference under misspecification for complex statistical models comprised of simpler submodels, referred to as modules, that are coupled together. Such ``multi-modular" models often arise when combining…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-02 David T. Frazier , David J. Nott

Berger et al. (2001) and Ren et al. (2012) derived noninformative priors for Gaussian process models of spatially correlated data using the reference prior approach (Berger, Bernardo, 1991). The priors have good statistical properties and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-19 Ryan Burn

This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-15 Jarrad Courts , Johannes Hendriks , Adrian Wills , Thomas Schön , Brett Ninness

Bayesian inference is a popular approach to calibrating uncertainties, but it can underpredict such uncertainties when model misspecification is present, impacting its reliability to inform decision making. Recently, the statistics and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Rebekah White , Rileigh Bandy , Teresa Portone

Analysis of competing risks data plays an important role in the lifetime data analysis. Recently Feizjavadian and Hashemi (Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, vol. 82, 19-34, 2015) provided a classical inference of a competing risks…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Debashis Samanta , Debasis Kundu

Estimating boundary curves has many applications such as economics, climate science, and medicine. Bayesian trend filtering has been developed as one of locally adaptive smoothing methods to estimate the non-stationary trend of data. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Takahiro Onizuka , Fumiya Iwashige , Shintaro Hashimoto

This paper develops a methodology for approximating the posterior first two moments of the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. Partially specified probability models, which are defined only by specifying means and variances, are…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-01-27 K. Triantafyllopoulos , P. J. Harrison

We present a novel approach for constrained Bayesian inference. Unlike current methods, our approach does not require convexity of the constraint set. We reduce the constrained variational inference to a parametric optimization over the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-09-27 Oluwasanmi Koyejo , Joydeep Ghosh