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We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis concerning the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-01 Samir Bhatt , Neil Ferguson , Seth Flaxman , Axel Gandy , Swapnil Mishra , James A. Scott

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are crucial for controlling pandemics, but existing research often overlooks the heterogeneity of individual behavior, which can lead to inaccurate evaluations of the effectiveness of strategies. In…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-03-09 Xihan Zhang , Yuqing Liu , Chen Zhao , Guijun Li

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic has transformed almost every facet of human society throughout the world. Against an emerging, highly transmissible disease with no definitive treatment or vaccine, governments…

The widespread, and in many countries unprecedented, use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for mathematical models which can estimate the impact of these measures while…

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) such as banning public events or instituting lockdowns have been widely applied around the world to control the current COVID-19 pandemic. Typically, this type of intervention is imposed when an…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-03 Carla Castillo-Laborde , Taco de Wolff , Pedro Gajardo , Rodrigo Lecaros , Gerard Olivar , Hector Ramirez C

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 6.4 million registered deaths to date and has had a profound impact on economic activity. Here, we study the interaction of transmission, mortality, and the economy during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic from…

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have played a crucial role in controlling the spread of COVID-19. Nevertheless, NPI efficacy varies enormously between and within countries, mainly because of population and behavioural heterogeneity.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-06-28 Danton Freire-Flores , Nyna Llanovarced-Kawles , Anamaria Sanchez-Daza , Álvaro Olivera-Nappa

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been critical in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these sanitary measures have been partially lifted due to socioeconomic factors causing a worrisome rebound of the epidemic in several…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-23 Hugo Flores-Arguedas , José Ariel Camacho-Gutiérrez , Fernando Saldaña

Initial hopes of quickly eradicating the COVID-19 pandemic proved futile, and the goal shifted to controlling the peak of the infection, so as to minimize the load on healthcare systems. To that end, public health authorities intervened…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-05-25 M. Ali Al-Radhawi , Mahdiar Sadeghi , Eduardo D. Sontag

During the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen of COVID-19. Among those NPIs, quarantine measures were…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-03-04 Renquan Zhang , Yu Wang , Zheng Lv , Sen Pei

The COVID-19 pandemic created enormous public health and socioeconomic challenges. The health effects of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were often contrasted with significant social and economic costs. We describe a…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Quang Dang Nguyen , Mikhail Prokopenko

The implementation of governmental Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) has been the primary means of controlling the spread of the COVID-19 disease. The intended effect of these NPIs has been to reduce mobility. A strong reduction in…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-09-22 Berber T Snoeijer , Mariska Burger , Shaoxiong Sun , Richard JB Dobson , Amos A Folarin

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial in curbing COVID-19 in the United States (US). Consequently, relaxing NPIs through a phased re-opening of the US amid still-high levels of COVID-19 susceptibility could lead to new…

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated a trade-off between the health impacts of viral spread and the social and economic costs of restrictions. We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of…

Applications · Statistics 2024-11-20 Nicholas J. Irons , Adrian E. Raftery

The pandemic caused by the novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV2 has been responsible for life threatening health complications, and extreme pressure on healthcare systems. While preventive and definite curative medical interventions are yet to…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-09-09 Ankit Sharma , Shreyash Arya , Shashee Kumari , Arnab Chatterjee

Adherence to the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) put in place to mitigate the spreading of infectious diseases is a multifaceted problem. Socio-demographic, socio-economic, and epidemiological factors can influence the perceived…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-02-25 Nicolò Gozzi , Niccolò Comini , Nicola Perra

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, an astronomical number of publications on the pandemic dynamics appeared in the literature, of which many use the susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR) models, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-03 Hua-Liang Wei , S. A. Billings

In order to slow the spread of the CoViD-19 pandemic, governments around the world have enacted a wide set of policies limiting the transmission of the disease. Initially, these focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions; more recently,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-06-24 Janoś Gabler , Tobias Raabe , Klara Röhrl , Hans-Martin von Gaudecker

The informational environment surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic has been widely recognized as fragmented, politicized, and complex [1]. This has resulted in polarized public views regarding the veracity of scientific communication, the…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2021-10-26 Alex Rich , Cameron Yick , David Gotz

During the recent pandemic, a rise in COVID-19 cases was followed by a decline in influenza. In the absence of cross-immunity, a potential explanation for the observed pattern is behavioral: non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) designed…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-04-20 Leah LeJeune , Omar Saucedo , Lauren M. Childs , Navid Ghaffarzadegan