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We consider optimal sequential allocation in the context of the so-called stochastic multi-armed bandit model. We describe a generic index policy, in the sense of Gittins [J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 41 (1979) 148-177], based on…

Current approaches in approximate inference for Bayesian neural networks minimise the Kullback-Leibler divergence to approximate the true posterior over the weights. However, this approximation is without knowledge of the final application,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-11 Adam D. Cobb , Stephen J. Roberts , Yarin Gal

Current PAC-Bayes generalisation bounds are restricted to scalar metrics of performance, such as the loss or error rate. However, one ideally wants more information-rich certificates that control the entire distribution of possible…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-10 Reuben Adams , John Shawe-Taylor , Benjamin Guedj

The maximum likelihood method is the best-known method for estimating the probabilities behind the data. However, the conventional method obtains the probability model closest to the empirical distribution, resulting in overfitting. Then…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-03 Akihisa Ichiki

Kernel techniques are among the most popular and flexible approaches in data science allowing to represent probability measures without loss of information under mild conditions. The resulting mapping called mean embedding gives rise to a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-27 Linda Chamakh , Zoltan Szabo

In continuation to a recent work on the statistical--mechanical analysis of minimum mean square error (MMSE) estimation in Gaussian noise via its relation to the mutual information (the I-MMSE relation), here we propose a simple and more…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Neri Merhav

This paper concerns the approximation of probability measures on $\mathbf{R}^d$ with respect to the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Given an admissible target measure, we show the existence of the best approximation, with respect to this…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-26 Yulong Lu , Andrew M. Stuart , Hendrik Weber

Despite the simplicity and intuitive interpretation of Minimum Mean Squared Error (MMSE) estimators, their effectiveness in certain scenarios is questionable. Indeed, minimizing squared errors on average does not provide any form of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-12-09 Dionysios S. Kalogerias , Luiz F. O. Chamon , George J. Pappas , Alejandro Ribeiro

This paper focuses on the problem of separately modulating and jointly estimating two independent continuous-valued parameters sent over a Gaussian multiple-access channel (MAC) under the mean square error (MSE) criterion. To this end, we…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-09-28 Ayse Unsal , Raymond Knopp , Neri Merhav

Mixture distributions arise in many parametric and non-parametric settings -- for example, in Gaussian mixture models and in non-parametric estimation. It is often necessary to compute the entropy of a mixture, but, in most cases, this…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Artemy Kolchinsky , Brendan D. Tracey

We present a framework for the theoretical analysis of ensembles of low-complexity empirical risk minimisers trained on independent random compressions of high-dimensional data. First we introduce a general distribution-dependent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Henry W. J. Reeve , Ata Kaban

We study Gaussian approximations to the distribution of a diffusion. The approximations are easy to compute: they are defined by two simple ordinary differential equations for the mean and the covariance. Time correlations can also be…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-20 Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Andrew M. Stuart

We prove lower bounds on the error of any estimator for the mean of a real probability distribution under the knowledge that the distribution belongs to a given set. We apply these lower bounds both to parametric and nonparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-05 Rémy Degenne , Timothée Mathieu

We give a new lower bound for the minimal dispersion of a point set in the unit cube and its inverse function in the high dimension regime. This is done by considering only a very small class of test boxes, which allows us to reduce…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-03-21 Matěj Trödler , Jan Volec , Jan Vybíral

We derive a deterministic, non-asymptotic upper bound on the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence of the flow-matching distribution approximation. In particular, if the $L_2$ flow-matching loss is bounded by $\epsilon^2 > 0$, then the KL…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Maojiang Su , Jerry Yao-Chieh Hu , Sophia Pi , Han Liu

We study the worst-case probability that $Y$ outperforms a benchmark $X$ when the law of $Y$ lies in a Kullback-Leibler neighbourhood of the benchmark. The max-min problem over couplings admits a tractable dual (via optimal transport),…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-03 Ozan Hür

In this paper, we delve deeper into the Kullback-Leibler (KL) Divergence loss and mathematically prove that it is equivalent to the Decoupled Kullback-Leibler (DKL) Divergence loss that consists of 1) a weighted Mean Square Error (wMSE)…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Jiequan Cui , Zhuotao Tian , Zhisheng Zhong , Xiaojuan Qi , Bei Yu , Hanwang Zhang

This paper presents an improved exponential tail bound for Beta distributions, refining a result in [15]. This improvement is achieved by interpreting their bound as a regular Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence one, while introducing a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Pierre Perrault

In this work, we investigate Gaussian Mixture Models ({\it abbrv} GMM) and the related problem of non parametric maximum likelihood estimation ({\it abbrv} NPMLE) from the perspective of statistical mechanics. In particular, we establish…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-25 Subhroshekhar Ghosh , Adityanand Guntuboyina , Satyaki Mukherjee , Hoang-Son Tran

In this paper, we derive some upper and lower bounds and inequalities for the total variation distance (TVD) and the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD), also known as the relative entropy, between two probability measures $\mu$ and $\nu$…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-07 Ievlev Pavel , Timofei Shashkov
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