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In this paper we elaborate on homogeneous and heterogeneous SIR-type epidemiological models. We find an unexpected correspondence between the epidemic trajectory of a transmissible disease in a homogeneous SIR-type model and radial null…
Consider the causal effect that one individual's treatment may have on another individual's outcome when the outcome is contagious, with specific application to the effect of vaccination on an infectious disease outcome. The effect of one…
We introduce a 2-layer network model for the study of the immunization dynamics in epidemics. Spreading of an epidemic is modeled as an excitatory process in a small-world network (body layer) while immunization by prevention for the…
The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the…
The spread of certain diseases can be promoted, in some cases substantially, by prior infection with another disease. One example is that of HIV, whose immunosuppressant effects significantly increase the chances of infection with other…
The ability to directly record human face-to-face interactions increasingly enables the development of detailed data-driven models for the spread of directly transmitted infectious diseases at the scale of individuals. Complete coverage of…
We investigate how the properties of epidemic networks change depending on the availability of different types of data on a disease outbreak. This is achieved by introducing mathematical and computational methods that estimate the…
Safe and effective preventive vaccines have the potential to help stem the HIV epidemic. The efficacy of such vaccines is typically measured in randomized, double-blind phase IIb/III trials and described as a reduction in newly acquired HIV…
This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…
A random network model which allows for tunable, quite general forms of clustering, degree correlation and degree distribution is defined. The model is an extension of the configuration model, in which stubs (half-edges) are paired to form…
The impact of information dissemination on epidemic control is essentially subject to individual behaviors. Unlike information-driven behaviors, vaccination is determined by many cost-related factors, whose correlation with the information…
Capturing the structure of a population and characterising contacts within the population are key to reliable projections of infectious disease. Two main elements of population structure -- contact heterogeneity and age -- have been…
We consider the spread of infectious disease through contact networks of Configuration Model type. We assume that the disease spreads through contacts and infected individuals recover into an immune state. We discuss a number of existing…
We study the susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random graph chosen uniformly subject to having given vertex degrees. In this model infective vertices infect each of their susceptible neighbours, and recover, at a constant…
Recent Covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated the need of efficient epidemic outbreak management. We study the optimal control problem of minimizing the fraction of infected population by applying vaccination and treatment control strategies,…
We present a compartmental mathematical model with demography for the spread of the COVID-19 disease, considering also asymptomatic infectious individuals. We compute the basic reproductive ratio of the model and study the local and global…
We investigate the dynamics of a simple epidemiological model for the invasion by a pathogen strain of a population where another strain circulates. We assume that reinfection by the same strain is possible but occurs at a reduced rate due…
The ability to actually implement epidemic models is a crucial stake for public institutions, as they may be overtaken by the increasing complexity of current models and sometimes tend to revert to less elaborate models such as the SIR. In…
In this paper, a branching process approximation for the spread of a Reed-Frost epidemic on a network with tunable clustering is derived. The approximation gives rise to expressions for the epidemic threshold and the probability of a large…
A new age-distributed immuno-epidemiological model with information-based vaccine uptake suggested in this work represents a system of integro-differential equations for the numbers of susceptible individuals, infected individuals,…