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Many of the data, particularly in medicine and disease mapping are count. Indeed, the under or overdispersion problem in count data distrusts the performance of the classical Poisson model. For taking into account this problem, in this…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-19 Mahsa Nadifar , Hossein Baghishani , Thomas Kneib , Afshin Fallah

The paper describes the use of Bayesian regression for building time series models and stacking different predictive models for time series. Using Bayesian regression for time series modeling with nonlinear trend was analyzed. This approach…

Applications · Statistics 2022-01-07 Bohdan M. Pavlyshenko

Chronic diseases often progress differently across patients. Rather than randomly varying, there are typically a small number of subtypes for how a disease progresses across patients. To capture this structured heterogeneity, the Subtype…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Hongtao Hao , Joseph L. Austerweil

A deterministic pathogen transmission model based on high-fidelity physics has been developed. The model combines computational fluid dynamics and computational crowd dynamics in order to be able to provide accurate tracing of viral matter…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-10-26 Rainald Löhner , Harbir Antil , Juan Marcelo Gimenez , Sergio Idelsohn , Eugenio Oñate

Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-01 Michael U. Gutmann , Jukka Corander

The posterior probability distribution for a set of model parameters encodes all that the data have to tell us in the context of a given model; it is the fundamental quantity for Bayesian parameter estimation. In order to infer the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-16 Rupert Allison , Joanna Dunkley

The syntactic topic model (STM) is a Bayesian nonparametric model of language that discovers latent distributions of words (topics) that are both semantically and syntactically coherent. The STM models dependency parsed corpora where…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2010-03-04 Jordan Boyd-Graber , David M. Blei

A key step in the Bayesian workflow for model building is the graphical assessment of model predictions, whether these are drawn from the prior or posterior predictive distribution. The goal of these assessments is to identify whether the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Teemu Säilynoja , Andrew R. Johnson , Osvaldo A. Martin , Aki Vehtari

Bayesian inference is an effective approach for solving statistical learning problems especially with uncertainty and incompleteness. However, inference efficiencies are physically limited by the bottlenecks of conventional computing…

Emerging Technologies · Computer Science 2017-11-06 Xiaotao Jia , Jianlei Yang , Zhaohao Wang , Yiran Chen , Hai , Li , Weisheng Zhao

In this paper, we consider a discrete-time stochastic SIR model, where the transmission rate and the true number of infectious individuals are random and unobservable. An advantage of this model is that it permits us to account for random…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-01-30 Katia Colaneri , Camilla Damian , Rüdiger Frey

Transfer learning is a burgeoning concept in statistical machine learning that seeks to improve inference and/or predictive accuracy on a domain of interest by leveraging data from related domains. While the term "transfer learning" has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-22 Piotr M. Suder , Jason Xu , David B. Dunson

We derive a family of loss functions to train models in the presence of sampling bias. Examples are when the prevalence of a pathology differs from its sampling rate in the training dataset, or when a machine learning practioner rebalances…

Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms and can spread through different ways. Mathematical models and computational simulation have been used extensively to investigate the transmission and spread of infectious…

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

Identifying disease-indicative genes is critical for deciphering disease mechanisms and has attracted significant interest in biomedical research. Spatial transcriptomics offers unprecedented insights for the detection of disease-specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-05 Qicheng Zhao , Qihuang Zhang

The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of Kermack and McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual and mathematical…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-09-03 Joel C. Miller , Anja C. Slim , Erik M. Volz

Parametric Bayesian modeling offers a powerful and flexible toolbox for machine learning. Yet the model, however detailed, may still be wrong, and this can make inferences untrustworthy. In this paper we introduce a new class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Bohan Wu , Eli N. Weinstein , Sohrab Salehi , Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

Clustering is a crucial task in various domains of knowledge, including medicine, epidemiology, genomics, environmental science, economics, and visual sciences, among others. Methodologies for inferring the number of clusters have often…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Clara Grazian

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Shirin Golchi , James Willard

During an infectious disease outbreak, providing accurate answers to policy questions about transmission requires a detailed model of the natural history of infectiousness. Unfortunately, direct measures of infectiousness are generally…