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This study introduces a new analytical framework for quantifying multivariate risk measures. Using the Wishart process, which is a stochastic process with values in the space of positive definite matrices, we derive several conditional tail…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-09 Jose Da Fonseca , Patrick Wong

We construct a two-sample test for comparison of long memory parameters based on ratios of two rescaled variance (V/S) statistics studied in [Giraitis L., Leipus, R., Philippe, A., 2006. A test for stationarity versus trends and unit roots…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-02-16 Frédéric Lavancier , Anne Philippe , Donatas Surgailis

Heavy tailed phenomena are naturally analyzed by extreme value statistics. A crucial step in such an analysis is the estimation of the extreme value index, which describes the tail heaviness of the underlying probability distribution. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-18 Hanan Ahmed , John H. J. Einmahl

An important assumption in the work on testing for structural breaks in time series consists in the fact that the model is formulated such that the stochastic process under the null hypothesis of "no change-point" is stationary. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-31 Holger Dette , Weichi Wu , Zhou Zhou

We introduce a novel distribution-based estimator for the Hurst parameter of log-volatility, leveraging the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic to assess the scaling behavior of entire distributions rather than individual moments. To address the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-04 Sergio Bianchi , Daniele Angelini

The Hurst exponent is the simplest numerical summary of self-similar long-range dependent stochastic processes. We consider the estimation of Hurst exponent in long-range dependent curve time series. Our estimation method begins by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-21 Han Lin Shang

The aim of this paper is to develop a change-point test for functional time series that uses the full functional information and is less sensitive to outliers compared to the classical CUSUM test. For this aim, the Wilcoxon two-sample test…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-06 Lea Wegner , Martin Wendler

We consider a stationary regularly varying time series which can be expressedas a function of a geometrically ergodic Markov chain. We obtain practical conditionsfor the weak convergence of the tail array sums and feasible estimators…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-25 Rafal Kulik , Philippe Soulier , Olivier Wintenberger , Rafa Kulik

We introduce a new type of estimator for the spectral tail process of a regularly varying time series. The approach is based on a characterizing invariance property of the spectral tail process, which is incorporated into the new estimator…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-16 Holger Drees , Anja Janßen , Sebastian Neblung

We consider a Markov modulated fluid network with a finite number of stations. We are interested in the tail asymptotics behavior of the stationary distribution of its buffer content process. Using two different approaches, we derive upper…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-29 Masakiyo Miyazawa

This paper studies the residual empirical process of long- and short-memory time series regression models and establishes its uniform expansion under a general framework. The results are applied to the stochastic regression models and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-16 Ngai Hang Chan , Shiqing Ling

This article studies tail behavior for the error components in the stochastic frontier model, where one component has bounded support on one side, and the other has unbounded support on both sides. Under weak assumptions on the error…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-16 William , C. Horrace , Yulong Wang

In applications the properties of a stochastic feature often change gradually rather than abruptly, that is: after a constant phase for some time they slowly start to vary. In this paper we discuss statistical inference for the detection…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-14 Michael Hoffmann , Mathias Vetter , Holger Dette

We study the problem of system identification for stochastic continuous-time dynamics, based on a single finite-length state trajectory. We present a method for estimating the possibly unstable open-loop matrix by employing properly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-30 Reza Sadeghi Hafshejani , Mohamad Kazem Shirani Fradonbeh

A common object to describe the extremal dependence of a $d$-variate random vector $X$ is the stable tail dependence function $L$. Various parametric models have emerged, with a popular subclass consisting of those stable tail dependence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Alexis Boulin , Axel Bücher

We propose a stochastic process driven by memory effect with novel distributions including both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of distribution is analytically derived from the continuum limit of the discrete…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-05-14 Jongwook Kim , Gabjin Oh

We model systemic risk using a common factor that accounts for market-wide shocks and a tail dependence factor that accounts for linkages among extreme stock returns. Specifically, our theoretical model allows for firm-specific impacts of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-02-07 Wan-Chien Chiu , Juan Ignacio Peña , Chih-Wei Wang

We consider an estimator for the location of a shift in the mean of long-range dependent sequences. The estimation is based on the two-sample Wilcoxon statistic. Consistency and the rate of convergence for the estimated change point are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-28 Annika Betken

We investigate the tail behaviour of the steady state distribution of a stochastic recursion that generalises Lindley's recursion. This recursion arises in queuing systems with dependent interarrival and service times, and includes…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-23 Maria Vlasiou , Zbigniew Palmowski

We present a purely deep neural network-based approach for estimating long memory parameters of time series models that incorporate the phenomenon of long-range dependence. Parameters, such as the Hurst exponent, are critical in…