Related papers: Time Series Methods and Ensemble Models to Nowcast…
Dengue is a major threat to public health in Brazil, the world's sixth biggest country by population, with over 1.5 million cases recorded in 2019 alone. Official data on dengue case counts is delivered incrementally and, for many reasons,…
Supervised machine learning models and public surveillance data has been employed for infectious disease forecasting in many settings. These models leverage various data sources capturing drivers of disease spread, such as climate…
Predicting whether to expect a high incidence of infectious diseases is critical for health surveillance. In the epidemiology of dengue, environmental conditions can significantly impact the transmission of the virus. Utilizing…
Recent infectious disease outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Zika epidemic in Brazil, have demonstrated both the importance and difficulty of accurately forecasting novel infectious diseases. When new diseases first emerge, we…
An age structured mathematical model with time dependent parameters is developed to investigate the dynamics of dengue transmission. Its properties are thoroughly analyzed in the first part of this work, as for example its disease free…
Local climate conditions play a major role in the development of the mosquito population responsible for transmitting Dengue Fever. Since the {\em Aedes Aegypti} mosquito is also a primary vector for the recent Zika and Chikungunya…
Dengue transmission is rapidly expanding beyond its historical tropical range, raising concerns about how climate change may alter the collective dynamics of epidemics. While most studies focus on transmission risk, much less is known about…
Epidemiological early warning systems for dengue fever rely on up-to-date epidemiological data to forecast future incidence. However, epidemiological data typically requires time to be available, due to the application of time-consuming…
The influence of climate on mosquito-borne diseases like dengue and chikungunya is well-established, but comprehensively tracking long-term spatial and temporal trends across large areas has been hindered by fragmented data and limited…
This data paper describes and publicly releases this dataset (v1.0.0), published on Zenodo under DOI 10.5281/zenodo.18189192. Motivated by the need to increase the temporal granularity of originally monthly data to enable more effective…
Dengue remains one of Brazil's major epidemiological challenges, marked by strong intra-urban inequalities and the influence of climatic and socio-environmental factors. This study analyzed confirmed dengue cases in Recife from 2015 to 2024…
Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease present in all Brazilian territory. Brazilian government, however, lacks an accurate early warning system to quickly predict future dengue outbreaks. Such system would help health authorities to plan…
Dengue fever is a virulent disease spreading over 100 tropical and subtropical countries in Africa, the Americas, and Asia. This arboviral disease affects around 400 million people globally, severely distressing the healthcare systems. The…
Dengue is a viral vector-borne infectious disease that affects many countries worldwide, infecting around 390 million people per year. The main outbreaks occur in subtropical and tropical countries. We study here the influence of climate on…
Dengue incidence forecasting using hybrid models has been surging in the data rich world. Hybridization of statistical time series forecasting models and machine learning models are explored for dengue forecasting with different degrees of…
The performance of data-driven prediction models depends on the availability of data samples for model training. A model that learns about dengue fever incidence in a population uses historical data from that corresponding location. Poor…
Detecting and preventing outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases such as Dengue and Zika in Brasil and other tropical regions has long been a priority for governments in affected areas. Streaming social media content, such as Twitter, is…
Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease that threatens more than half of the world's population. Despite being endemic to over 100 countries, government-led efforts and mechanisms to timely identify and track the emergence of new infections are…
Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this…
Infectious diseases occur when pathogens from other individuals or animals infect a person, resulting in harm to both individuals and society as a whole. The outbreak of such diseases can pose a significant threat to human health. However,…