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Correctly setting the parameters of a production machine is essential to improve product quality, increase efficiency, and reduce production costs while also supporting sustainability goals. Identifying optimal parameters involves an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-24 Philipp Wagner , Tobias Nagel , Philipp Leube , Marco F. Huber

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-11-14 Zhenyu A. Liao , Charupriya Sharma , James Cussens , Peter van Beek

Neural nets have become popular to accelerate parameter inferences, especially for the upcoming generation of galaxy surveys in cosmology. As neural nets are approximative by nature, a recurrent question has been how to propagate the neural…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-07-25 Daniela Grandón , Elena Sellentin

Phase estimation is known to be a robust method for single-qubit gate calibration in quantum computers, while Bayesian estimation is widely used in devising optimal methods for learning in quantum systems. We present Bayesian phase…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-05-06 Brennan de Neeve , Andrey V. Lebedev , Vlad Negnevitsky , Jonathan P. Home

Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Isadora Antoniano-Villalobos , Emanuele Borgonovo , Xuefei Lu

In this paper, we aim to design and analyze distributed Bayesian estimation algorithms for sensor networks. The challenges we address are to (i) derive a distributed provably-correct algorithm in the functional space of probability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Parth Paritosh , Nikolay Atanasov , Sonia Martinez

Artificial neural networks (NNs) have become the de facto standard in machine learning. They allow learning highly nonlinear transformations in a plethora of applications. However, NNs usually only provide point estimates without…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-11 Marco F. Huber

Neural networks are popular state-of-the-art models for many different tasks.They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-29 Simón Rodríguez Santana , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-14 Mahdi Pakdaman Naeini , Gregory F. Cooper , Milos Hauskrecht

In many instances, the application of approximate Bayesian methods is hampered by two practical features: 1) the requirement to project the data down to low-dimensional summary, including the choice of this projection, which ultimately…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-26 David T. Frazier

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-03 Konstantin Posch , Jürgen Pilz

Achieving quantum-enhanced performances when measuring unknown quantities requires developing suitable methodologies for practical scenarios, that include noise and the availability of a limited amount of resources. Here, we report on the…

We show that ensembles of deep neural networks, called deep ensembles, can be used to perform quantum parameter estimation while also providing a means for quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates, which is a key advantage of using…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-09 Amanuel Anteneh

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

The ability to efficiently infer system parameters is essential in any signal-processing task that requires fast operation. Dealing with quantum systems, a serious challenge arises due to substantial growth of the underlying Hilbert space…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-23 Lewis A. Clark , Jan Kolodynski

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in Earth system model parameterizations is essential to improving their reliability in decision-making. Forward uncertainty propagation is used to derive parameter sensitivity but requires physically…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-22 Ethan YoungIn Shin , Baris Kale , Michael F. Howland

Bayesian decision theory provides an elegant framework for acting optimally under uncertainty when tractable posterior distributions are available. Modern Bayesian models, however, typically involve intractable posteriors that are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-15 Meet P. Vadera , Soumya Ghosh , Kenney Ng , Benjamin M. Marlin

Bayesian learning is ubiquitous for implementing classification and regression tasks, however, it is accompanied by computationally intractable limitations when the feature spaces become extremely large. Aiming to solve this problem, we…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-12-24 Yusen Wu , Chao-hua Yu , Sujuan Qin , Qiaoyan Wen , Fei Gao

Using quantum systems as sensors or probes has been shown to greatly improve the precision of parameter estimation by exploiting unique quantum features such as entanglement. A major task in quantum sensing is to design the optimal…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-06-24 Jessica Bavaresco , Patryk Lipka-Bartosik , Pavel Sekatski , Mohammad Mehboudi

As a compact representation of joint probability distributions over a dependence graph of random variables, and a tool for modelling and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty, Bayesian networks are of great importance for artificial…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2020-10-06 Michael de Oliveira , Luis Soares Barbosa