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We propose a distributionally robust approach to risk-sensitive estimation of an unknown signal x from an observed signal y. The unknown signal and observation are modeled as random vectors whose joint probability distribution is unknown,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Feras Al Taha , Eilyan Bitar

Causal influence measures for machine learnt classifiers shed light on the reasons behind classification, and aid in identifying influential input features and revealing their biases. However, such analyses involve evaluating the classifier…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-04-10 Shayak Sen , Piotr Mardziel , Anupam Datta , Matthew Fredrikson

Tail-end risk measures such as static conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used in safety-critical applications to prevent rare, yet catastrophic events. Unlike risk-neutral objectives, the static CVaR of the return depends on entire…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Aneri Muni , Vincent Taboga , Esther Derman , Pierre-Luc Bacon , Erick Delage

Continual learning deals with training models on new tasks and datasets in an online fashion. One strand of research has used probabilistic regularization for continual learning, with two of the main approaches in this vein being Online…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Noel Loo , Siddharth Swaroop , Richard E. Turner

We account for time-varying parameters in the conditional expectile-based value at risk (EVaR) model. The EVaR downside risk is more sensitive to the magnitude of portfolio losses compared to the quantile-based value at risk (QVaR). Rather…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-29 Xiu Xu , Andrija Mihoci , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

We consider a statistical version of curriculum learning (CL) in a parametric prediction setting. The learner is required to estimate a target parameter vector, and can adaptively collect samples from either the target model, or other…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-22 Omer Cohen , Ron Meir , Nir Weinberger

Cross-validation (CV) is one of the most popular tools for assessing and selecting predictive models. However, standard CV suffers from high computational cost when the number of folds is large. Recently, under the empirical risk…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-30 Yuetian Luo , Zhimei Ren , Rina Foygel Barber

We introduce a novel regression model for the conditional left and right tail of a possibly heavy-tailed response. The proposed model can be used to learn the effect of covariates on an extreme value setting via a Lasso-type specification…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-11 Miguel de Carvalho , Soraia Pereira , Paula Pereira , Patrícia de Zea Bermudez

Decoupling representation learning and classifier learning has been shown to be effective in classification with long-tailed data. There are two main ingredients in constructing a decoupled learning scheme; 1) how to train the feature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-20 Giung Nam , Sunguk Jang , Juho Lee

We study a continuous-time portfolio optimization problem under an explicit constraint on the Deviation Conditional Value-at-Risk (DCVaR), defined as the difference between the CVaR and the expected terminal wealth. While the mean-CVaR…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-01 Jérôme Lelong , Véronique Maume-Deschamps , William Thevenot

While the traditional formulation of machine learning tasks is in terms of performance on average, in practice we are often interested in how well a trained model performs on rare or difficult data points at test time. To achieve more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-29 Matthew J. Holland , Toma Hamada

Policy evaluation is a core component of many reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms and a critical tool for ensuring safe deployment of RL policies. However, existing policy evaluation methods often suffer from high variance or bias. To…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-23 Shripad Vilasrao Deshmukh , Will Schwarzer , Scott Niekum

We propose a simple data model inspired from natural data such as text or images, and use it to study the importance of learning features in order to achieve good generalization. Our data model follows a long-tailed distribution in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-02 Thomas Laurent , James H. von Brecht , Xavier Bresson

Conditional value at risk (CVaR) is a popular measure for quantifying portfolio risk. Sensitivity analysis of CVaR is very useful in risk management and gradient-based optimization algorithms. In this paper, we study the infinitesimal…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Zhijian He

This paper investigates the efficiency of the K-fold cross-validation (CV) procedure and a debiased version thereof as a means of estimating the generalization risk of a learning algorithm. We work under the general assumption of uniform…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-13 Anass Aghbalou , François Portier , Anne Sabourin

Deep reinforcement learning has recently made significant progress in solving computer games and robotic control tasks. A known problem, though, is that policies overfit to the training environment and may not avoid rare, catastrophic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-02 Xinlei Pan , Daniel Seita , Yang Gao , John Canny

In this paper we are concerned with the analysis of heavy-tailed data when a portion of the extreme values is unavailable. This research was motivated by an analysis of the degree distributions in a large social network. The degree…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-20 Jingjing Zou , Richard A. Davis , Gennady Samorodnitsky

We propose GradTail, an algorithm that uses gradients to improve model performance on the fly in the face of long-tailed training data distributions. Unlike conventional long-tail classifiers which operate on converged - and possibly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-20 Zhao Chen , Vincent Casser , Henrik Kretzschmar , Dragomir Anguelov

We study a linear-quadratic, optimal control problem on a discrete, finite time horizon with distributional ambiguity, in which the cost is assessed via Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). We take steps toward deriving a scalable dynamic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-28 Margaret P. Chapman , Laurent Lessard

Value-at-risk (VaR) has been playing the role of a standard risk measure since its introduction. In practice, the delta-normal approach is usually adopted to approximate the VaR of portfolios with option positions. Its effectiveness,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-22 Junyao Chen , Tony Sit , Hoi Ying Wong