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The increasing use of deep learning across various domains highlights the importance of understanding the decision-making processes of these black-box models. Recent research focusing on the decision boundaries of deep classifiers, relies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Inês Gomes , Luís F. Teixeira , Jan N. van Rijn , Carlos Soares , André Restivo , Luís Cunha , Moisés Santos

A general theory of innovation and progress in human society is outlined, based on the combat between two opposite forces (conservatism/inertia and speculative herding "bubble" behavior). We contend that human affairs are characterized by…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 Didier Sornette

We propose a game-theoretic framework that incorporates both incomplete information and general ambiguity attitudes on factors external to all players. Our starting point is players' preferences on payoff-distribution vectors, essentially…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-04 Jian Yang

This paper investigates a novel behavioral feature of recursive preferences: aversion to risks that persist over time, or simply \textit{correlation aversion}. Greater persistence provides information about future consumption but reduces…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-24 Lorenzo Maria Stanca

In many areas of data mining, data is collected from humans beings. In this contribution, we ask the question of how people actually respond to ordinal scales. The main problem observed is that users tend to be volatile in their choices,…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2017-03-01 Kevin Jasberg , Sergej Sizov

We provide sufficient conditions for semi-nonparametric point identification of a mixture model of decision making under risk, when agents make choices in multiple lines of insurance coverage (contexts) by purchasing a bundle. As a first…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-07-19 Levon Barseghyan , Francesca Molinari

This paper studies preference aggregation under risk. In our model, each agent has an incomplete preference relation represented by a set of expected utility functions. The classical Pareto principle is silent on agreement involving…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-01-06 Leo Kurata , Kensei Nakamura

Machine learning models are vulnerable to adversarial examples: minor perturbations to input samples intended to deliberately cause misclassification. While an obvious security threat, adversarial examples yield as well insights about the…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2019-11-19 Kathrin Grosse , David Pfaff , Michael Thomas Smith , Michael Backes

Complexity theory is a useful tool to study computational issues surrounding the elicitation of preferences, as well as the strategic manipulation of elections aggregating together preferences of multiple agents. We study here the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-04-18 Toby Walsh

In robust optimization, the uncertainty set is used to model all possible outcomes of uncertain parameters. In the classic setting, one assumes that this set is provided by the decision maker based on the data available to her. Only…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-01-23 Trivikram Dokka , Marc Goerigk , Rahul Roy

We explore a multiple-stage variant of the min-max robust selection problem with budgeted uncertainty that includes queries. First, one queries a subset of items and gets the exact values of their uncertain parameters. Given this…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-07 Xiaoyu Chen , Marc Goerigk , Michael Poss

We study the subtlety of optimal paternalism when a utilitarian planner has the power to design a discrete choice set for a heterogeneous population with bounded rationality. We first consider the planning problem in abstraction. We show…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-23 Charles F. Manski , Eytan Sheshinski

We introduce a class of learning problems where the agent is presented with a series of tasks. Intuitively, if there is relation among those tasks, then the information gained during execution of one task has value for the execution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-09-06 Christos Dimitrakakis

In this article, I develop a formal model of free will for complex systems based on emergent properties and adaptive selection. The model is based on a process ontology in which a free choice is a singular process that takes a system from…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2020-11-16 Ian T. Durham

This paper studies choice situations in which a decision maker can choose multiple alternatives. Given a menu of available options, the decision maker selects a subset of the menu with certain probabilities. We employ an axiomatic approach…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-11-25 Tri Phu Vu

In a data-scarce field such as healthcare, where models often deliver predictions on patients with rare conditions, the ability to measure the uncertainty of a model's prediction could potentially lead to improved effectiveness of decision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-26 Lotta Meijerink , Giovanni Cinà , Michele Tonutti

How should well-being be prioritised in society, and what trade-offs are people willing to make between fairness and personal well-being? We investigate these questions using a stated preference experiment with a nationally representative…

General Economics · Economics 2026-05-19 Crispin Cooper , Ana Fredrich , Tommaso Reggiani , Wouter Poortinga

Bayesian inference is often utilized for uncertainty quantification tasks. A recent analysis by Xu and Raginsky 2022 rigorously decomposed the predictive uncertainty in Bayesian inference into two uncertainties, called aleatoric and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-25 Futoshi Futami , Tomoharu Iwata

In many applications, especially those involving prediction, models may yield near-optimal performance yet significantly disagree on individual-level outcomes. This phenomenon, known as predictive multiplicity, has been formally defined in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-17 Mustafa Cavus

We consider the problem of estimating a ranking on a set of items from noisy pairwise comparisons given item features. We address the fact that pairwise comparison data often reflects irrational choice, e.g. intransitivity. Our key…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-30 Amanda Bower , Laura Balzano