Related papers: Bayesian Updates Compose Optically
There are now many explainable AI methods for understanding the decisions of a machine learning model. Among these are those based on counterfactual reasoning, which involve simulating features changes and observing the impact on the…
Our previous work on classifying complex ship images [1,2] has evolved into an effort to develop software tools for building and solving generic classification problems. Managing the uncertainty associated with feature data and other…
Traditionally, the MaxEnt workshops start by a tutorial day. This paper summarizes my talk during 2001'th workshop at John Hopkins University. The main idea in this talk is to show how the Bayesian inference can naturally give us all the…
Recursive Bayesian inference, in which posterior beliefs are updated in light of accumulating data, is a tool for implementing Bayesian models in applications with streaming and/or very large data sets. As the posterior of one iteration…
Conditioning, the central operation in Bayesian statistics, is formalised by the notion of disintegration of measures. However, due to the implicit nature of their definition, constructing disintegrations is often difficult. A folklore…
A common assumption in belief revision is that the reliability of the information sources is either given, derived from temporal information, or the same for all. This article does not describe a new semantics for integration but the…
This paper addresses the issue of inversion in cases where (1) the observation system is modeled by a linear transformation and additive noise, (2) the problem is ill-posed and regularization is introduced in a Bayesian framework by an a…
Bayesian statistical models allow us to formalise our knowledge about the world and reason about our uncertainty, but there is a need for better procedures to accurately encode its complexity. One way to do so is through compositional…
Imaging is a form of probabilistic belief change which could be employed for both revision and update. In this paper, we propose a new framework for probabilistic belief change based on imaging, called Expected Distance Imaging (EDI). EDI…
Currently, there is renewed interest in the problem, raised by Shafer in 1985, of updating probabilities when observations are incomplete. This is a fundamental problem in general, and of particular interest for Bayesian networks. Recently,…
Given a supervised machine learning problem where the training set has been subject to a known sampling bias, how can a model be trained to fit the original dataset? We achieve this through the Bayesian inference framework by altering the…
Bayesian analyses are often performed using so-called noninformative priors, with a view to achieving objective inference about unknown parameters on which available data depends. Noninformative priors depend on the relationship of the data…
This paper provides a critical review of the Bayesian perspective of causal inference based on the potential outcomes framework. We review the causal estimands, identification assumptions, the general structure of Bayesian inference of…
Bayesian interpretations of neural processing require that biological mechanisms represent and operate upon probability distributions in accordance with Bayes' theorem. Many have speculated that synaptic failure constitutes a mechanism of…
An updating rule specifies how an agent reacts to information. An updating rule is Blackwell monotone if more information is always better for an agent in a decision problem and strictly Blackwell monotone if, in addition, there is always a…
Counterfactual explanations (CEs) offer interpretable insights into machine learning predictions by answering ``what if?" questions. However, in real-world settings where models are frequently updated, existing counterfactual explanations…
A general approach for Bayesian filtering of multi-object systems is studied, with particular emphasis on the model where each object generates observations independently of other objects. The approach is based on variational calculus…
Loss-based updating, including generalized Bayes, Gibbs, and quasi-posteriors, replaces likelihoods by a user-chosen loss and produces a posterior-like distribution via exponential tilt. We give a decision-theoretic characterization that…
Interventional causal models describe several joint distributions over some variables used to describe a system, one for each intervention setting. They provide a formal recipe for how to move between the different joint distributions and…
A comprehensive artificial intelligence system needs to not only perceive the environment with different `senses' (e.g., seeing and hearing) but also infer the world's conditional (or even causal) relations and corresponding uncertainty.…