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Interpretability and transparency are essential for incorporating causal effect models from observational data into policy decision-making. They can provide trust for the model in the absence of ground truth labels to evaluate the accuracy…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-01 Lucile Ter-Minassian , Liran Szlak , Ehud Karavani , Chris Holmes , Yishai Shimoni

A predictive model makes outcome predictions based on some given features, i.e., it estimates the conditional probability of the outcome given a feature vector. In general, a predictive model cannot estimate the causal effect of a feature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Ziqi Xu , Ha Xuan Tran , Thuc Duy Le , Jixue Liu

The goal of causal inference is to understand the outcome of alternative courses of action. However, all causal inference requires assumptions. Such assumptions can be more influential than in typical tasks for probabilistic modeling, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-31 Dustin Tran , Francisco J. R. Ruiz , Susan Athey , David M. Blei

Deep networks have shown remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks, yet getting a global concept-level understanding of how they function remains a key challenge. Many post-hoc concept-based approaches have been introduced to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Amin Parchami-Araghi , Sukrut Rao , Jonas Fischer , Bernt Schiele

Interpretable machine learning offers insights into what factors drive a certain prediction of a black-box system. A large number of interpreting methods focus on identifying explanatory input features, which generally fall into two main…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Vy Vo , Van Nguyen , Trung Le , Quan Hung Tran , Gholamreza Haffari , Seyit Camtepe , Dinh Phung

Contrastive explanations clarify why an event occurred in contrast to another. They are more inherently intuitive to humans to both produce and comprehend. We propose a methodology to produce contrastive explanations for classification…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-09-15 Alon Jacovi , Swabha Swayamdipta , Shauli Ravfogel , Yanai Elazar , Yejin Choi , Yoav Goldberg

A key feature of human theory-of-mind is the ability to attribute beliefs to other agents as mentalistic explanations for their behavior. But given the wide variety of beliefs that agents may hold about the world and the rich language we…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Lance Ying , Almog Hillel , Ryan Truong , Vikash K. Mansinghka , Joshua B. Tenenbaum , Tan Zhi-Xuan

Explanations are often promoted as tools for transparency, but they can also foster confirmation bias; users may assume reasoning is correct whenever outputs appear acceptable. We study this double-edged role of Chain-of-Thought (CoT)…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Eunkyu Park , Wesley Hanwen Deng , Vasudha Varadarajan , Mingxi Yan , Gunhee Kim , Maarten Sap , Motahhare Eslami

Explainable AI aims to render model behavior understandable by humans, which can be seen as an intermediate step in extracting causal relations from correlative patterns. Due to the high risk of possible fatal decisions in image-based…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Lukas Klein , João B. S. Carvalho , Mennatallah El-Assady , Paolo Penna , Joachim M. Buhmann , Paul F. Jaeger

Large language models (LLMs) often generate content with unsupported or unverifiable content, known as "hallucinations." To address this, retrieval-augmented LLMs are employed to include citations in their content, grounding the content in…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-08-23 Weijia Zhang , Mohammad Aliannejadi , Jiahuan Pei , Yifei Yuan , Jia-Hong Huang , Evangelos Kanoulas

Causal inference is often portrayed as fundamentally distinct from predictive modeling, with its own terminology, goals, and intellectual challenges. But at its core, causal inference is simply a structured instance of prediction under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Carlos Fernández-Loría

We demonstrate that the Faithfulness property that is assumed in much causal analysis is robustly violated for a large class of systems of a type that occurs throughout the life and social sciences: control systems. These systems exhibit…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-13 Richard Kennaway

Diffusion models have emerged as the leading paradigm in generative modeling, excelling in various applications. Despite their success, these models often misalign with human intentions and generate results with undesired properties or even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Buhua Liu , Shitong Shao , Bao Li , Lichen Bai , Zhiqiang Xu , Haoyi Xiong , James Kwok , Sumi Helal , Zeke Xie

To make effective decisions, it is important to have a thorough understanding of the causal relationships among actions, environments, and outcomes. This review aims to surface three crucial aspects of decision-making through a causal lens:…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-22 Lin Ge , Hengrui Cai , Runzhe Wan , Yang Xu , Rui Song

While belief functions may be seen formally as a generalization of probabilistic distributions, the question of the interactions between belief functions and probability is still an issue in practice. This question is difficult, since the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2011-10-03 Frederic Dambreville

This paper introduces a causal attribution model to enhance the interpretability of large language models (LLMs) and improve their causal reasoning abilities via precise fine-tuning. Despite LLMs' proficiency in diverse tasks, their…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Hengrui Cai , Shengjie Liu , Rui Song

Interpretability is an elusive but highly sought-after characteristic of modern machine learning methods. Recent work has focused on interpretability via $\textit{explanations}$, which justify individual model predictions. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-31 David Alvarez-Melis , Hal Daumé , Jennifer Wortman Vaughan , Hanna Wallach

Prompt Engineering has garnered significant attention for enhancing the performance of large language models across a multitude of tasks. Techniques such as the Chain-of-Thought not only bolster task performance but also delineate a clear…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-21 Wei Jie Yeo , Ranjan Satapathy , Rick Siow Mong Goh , Erik Cambria

Meta-analysis, by synthesizing effect estimates from multiple studies conducted in diverse settings, stands at the top of the evidence hierarchy in clinical research. Yet, conventional approaches based on fixed- or random-effects models…

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning has emerged as a powerful tool for improving large language model performance on complex tasks, but recent work shows that reasoning steps often fail to causally influence the final answer, creating brittle…