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Clinical decision-making is a feedback system where risk estimates influence treatment, which in turn changes disease trajectories, and both shape clinicians' measurement practices. Static prediction often fails clinically: models trained…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Pujun Feng , Xiaoyu Guo , Seyed Ehsan Saffari , Min Hun Lee , Siew-Kei Lam , Erik Cambria , Xibin Sun , Yangtao Zhou , Tong Yang , Xiaoyu Zhang , Tao Tan , Yue Sun , Bin Cui

Identifying patients who benefit from a treatment is a key aspect of personalized medicine, which allows the development of individualized treatment rules (ITRs). Many machine learning methods have been proposed to create such rules.…

Precision medicine leverages patient heterogeneity to estimate individualized treatment regimens, formalized, data-driven approaches designed to match patients with optimal treatments. In the presence of competing events, where multiple…

We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects from time-to-event data. While both the related problems of (i) estimating treatment effects for binary or continuous outcomes and (ii) predicting survival outcomes have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Alicia Curth , Changhee Lee , Mihaela van der Schaar

Treatment effect estimation is essential for informed decision-making in many fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. While flexible machine learning models have been widely applied for estimating heterogeneous treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Pascal Memmesheimer , Vincent Heuveline , Jürgen Hesser

We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-20 Ahmed M. Alaa , Michael Weisz , Mihaela van der Schaar

When learning policies for real-world domains, two important questions arise: (i) how to efficiently use pre-collected off-policy, non-optimal behavior data; and (ii) how to mediate among different competing objectives and constraints. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-22 Hoang M. Le , Cameron Voloshin , Yisong Yue

Precision mental health requires treatment decisions that account for heterogeneous symptoms reflecting multiple clinical domains. However, existing methods for estimating individualized treatment effects (ITE) rely on a single summary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Yuying Lu , Wenbo Fei , Yuanjia Wang , Molei Liu

Optimal state-feedback controllers, capable of changing between different objective functions, are advantageous to systems in which unexpected situations may arise. However, synthesising such controllers, even for a single objective, is a…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2020-10-13 Christopher Iliffe Sprague , Dario Izzo , Petter Ögren

Observational longitudinal studies are a common means to study treatment efficacy and safety in chronic mental illness. In many such studies, treatment changes may be initiated by either the patient or by their clinician and can thus vary…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-12 Zekun Xu , Eric Laber , Ana-Maria Staicu , Emanuel Severus

Randomized trials are considered the gold standard for making informed decisions in medicine, yet they often lack generalizability to the patient populations in clinical practice. Observational studies, on the other hand, cover a broader…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Javier Abad , Konstantin Donhauser , Fanny Yang

Guideline-based treatment for sepsis and septic shock is difficult because sepsis is a disparate range of life-threatening organ dysfunctions whose pathophysiology is not fully understood. Early intervention in sepsis is crucial for patient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-24 Ran Liu , Joseph L. Greenstein , James C. Fackler , Jules Bergmann , Melania M. Bembea , Raimond L. Winslow

Comparative binary outcome data are of fundamental interest in statistics and are often pooled in meta-analyses. Here we examine the simplest case where for each study there are two patient groups and a binary event of interest, giving rise…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-12 Rose Baker , Dan Jackson

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Christopher Stith , Medha Barath , Vahid Balazadeh , Jesse C. Cresswell , Rahul G. Krishnan

Estimation of individual treatment effects is commonly used as the basis for contextual decision making in fields such as healthcare, education, and economics. However, it is often sufficient for the decision maker to have estimates of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-13 Maggie Makar , Fredrik D. Johansson , John Guttag , David Sontag

This paper deals with optimal policy learning (OPL) with observational data, i.e. data-driven optimal decision-making, in multi-action (or multi-arm) settings, where a finite set of decision options is available. It is organized in three…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-01 Giovanni Cerulli

A core component of precision medicine research involves optimizing individualized treatment rules (ITRs) based on patient characteristics. Many studies used to estimate ITRs are longitudinal in nature, collecting outcomes over time. Yet,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-29 Lanqiu Yao , Thaddeus Tarpey

Individualized treatment decisions can improve health outcomes, but using data to make these decisions in a reliable, precise, and generalizable way is challenging with a single dataset. Leveraging multiple randomized controlled trials…

An individualized treatment rule (ITR) tailors treatments to a patient's specific characteristics. However, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are often underpowered to detect the treatment effect heterogeneity needed for reliable ITR…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Yuan Bian , Donglin Zeng , Hyun-Joon Yang , Leanne M. Williams , Yuanjia Wang

Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Bevan I. Smith , Charles Chimedza
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