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This paper introduces methodology for performing Bayesian inference sequentially on a sequence of posteriors on spaces of different dimensions. We show how this may be achieved through the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers (Del…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-02 Richard G Everitt , Richard Culliford , Felipe Medina-Aguayo , Daniel J Wilson

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the…

Computation · Statistics 2012-03-19 Richard G. Everitt

Brute force cross-validation (CV) is a method for predictive assessment and model selection that is general and applicable to a wide range of Bayesian models. Naive or `brute force' CV approaches are often too computationally costly for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Alex Cooper , Aki Vehtari , Catherine Forbes , Lauren Kennedy , Dan Simpson

Gaussian graphical models are useful tools for conditional independence structure inference of multivariate random variables. Unfortunately, Bayesian inference of latent graph structures is challenging due to exponential growth of…

Rich data generating mechanisms are ubiquitous in this age of information and require complex statistical models to draw meaningful inference. While Bayesian analysis has seen enormous development in the last 30 years, benefitting from the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-20 Radu V. Craiu , Evgeny Levi

Sample-based Bayesian inference provides a route to uncertainty quantification in the geosciences, and inverse problems in general, though is very computationally demanding in the naive form that requires simulating an accurate computer…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-12 Tiangang Cui , Colin Fox , Michael J O'Sullivan

We propose a variational Bayesian (VB) procedure for high-dimensional linear model inferences with heavy tail shrinkage priors, such as student-t prior. Theoretically, we establish the consistency of the proposed VB method and prove that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Jincheng Bai , Qifan Song , Guang Cheng

We consider posterior sampling in the very common Bayesian hierarchical model in which observed data depends on high-dimensional latent variables that, in turn, depend on relatively few hyperparameters. When the full conditional over the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-10-24 Richard A. Norton , J. Andres Christen , Colin Fox

Motivated by the needs of selecting important features for massive neuroimaging data, we propose a spatially varying coefficient model (SVCMs) with sparsity and piecewise smoothness imposed on the coefficient functions. A new class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-01 Ran Shi , Jian Kang

Sequential optimization methods are often confronted with the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional spaces. Current approaches under the Gaussian process framework are still burdened by the computational complexity of tracking…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-08 Zeji Yi , Yunyue Wei , Chu Xin Cheng , Kaibo He , Yanan Sui

Divide-and-conquer MCMC is a strategy for parallelising Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling by running independent samplers on disjoint subsets of a dataset and merging their output. An ongoing challenge in the literature is to efficiently…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-18 C. Trojan , P. Fearnhead , C. Nemeth

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of posterior distributions arising in Bayesian inverse problems is challenging when evaluations of the forward model are computationally expensive. Replacing the forward model with a low-cost,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-08-29 Benjamin Peherstorfer , Youssef Marzouk

We consider the problem of optimizing a real-valued continuous function $f$ using a Bayesian approach, where the evaluations of $f$ are chosen sequentially by combining prior information about $f$, which is described by a random process…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2011-11-22 Romain Benassi , Julien Bect , Emmanuel Vazquez

Neyman-Scott processes (NSPs) have been applied across a range of fields to model points or temporal events with a hierarchy of clusters. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is typically used for posterior sampling in the model. However, MCMC's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-08 Chengkuan Hong , Christian R. Shelton

We study probit regression from a Bayesian perspective and give an alternative form for the posterior distribution when the prior distribution for the regression parameters is the uniform distribution. This new form allows simple Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-15 Yuzo Maruyama , William E. Strawderman

A simple and efficient adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, called the Metropolized Adaptive Subspace (MAdaSub) algorithm, is proposed for sampling from high-dimensional posterior model distributions in Bayesian variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-04 Christian Staerk , Maria Kateri , Ioannis Ntzoufras

We propose a new class of learning algorithms that combines variational approximation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Naive algorithms that use the variational approximation as proposal distribution can perform poorly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Nando de Freitas , Pedro Hojen-Sorensen , Michael I. Jordan , Stuart Russell

In the era of Big Data, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, which are currently essential for Bayesian estimation, face significant computational challenges owing to their sequential nature. To achieve a faster and more effective…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-08 Tomoki Matsumoto

Bayesian inference promises to ground and improve the performance of deep neural networks. It promises to be robust to overfitting, to simplify the training procedure and the space of hyperparameters, and to provide a calibrated measure of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-12 Jonathan Heek , Nal Kalchbrenner

We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for changepoints where the number and position of the changepoints are both unknown. In particular, we consider product partition models where it is possible to integrate out model parameters…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-14 Alan Benson , Nial Friel