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For centuries isolation has been the main control strategy of unforeseen epidemic outbreaks. When implemented in full and without delay, isolation is very effective. However, flawless implementation is seldom feasible in practice. We…
A phenomenological model to describe the Corona Virus(covid-19) Pandemic spread in a given population is developed. It enables the identification of the key quantities required to form adequate policies for control and mitigation in terms…
We study the impact of parameter estimation and state measurement errors on a control framework for optimally mitigating the spread of epidemics. We capture the epidemic spreading process using a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemic…
The emergence of an epidemic evokes the need to monitor its spread and assess and validate any mitigation measures enacted by governments and administrative bodies in real time. We present here a method to observe and quantify this spread…
A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…
As infectious disease outbreaks emerge, public health agencies often enact vaccination and social distancing measures to slow transmission. Their success depends on not only strategies and resources, but also public adherence. Individual…
The outbreak of COVID-19 since Dec. 2019 has caused severe life and economic damage worldwide, many countries are trapped by medical resource constraints or absence of targeted therapeutics, and therefore the implement of systemic policies…
We study the critical effect of an intermittent social distancing strategy on the propagation of epidemics in adaptive complex networks. We characterize the effect of our strategy in the framework of the susceptible-infected-recovered…
Social distancing and lockdown are the two main non-pharmaceutical interventions being used by the UK government to contain and control the COVID-19 epidemic; these are being applied uniformly across the entire country, even though the…
Social distancing has been the only effective way to contain the spread of an infectious disease prior to the availability of the pharmaceutical treatment. It can lower the infection rate of the disease at the economic cost. A pandemic…
One of the key indicators used in tracking the evolution of an infectious disease isthe reproduction number. This quantity is usually computed using the reportednumber of cases, but ignoring that many more individuals may be infected…
Lately, concepts such as lockdown, quarantine, and social distancing have become very relevant since they have been associated with essential measures in the prevention and mitigation of COVID-19. While some conclusions about the…
In a move described as unprecedented in public health history, starting 24 January 2020, China imposed quarantine and isolation restrictions in Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. This raised the question: is mass quarantine and…
This work introduces a novel epidemiological model that simultaneously considers multiple viral strains, reinfections due to waning immunity response over time and an optimal control formulation. This enables us to derive optimal mitigation…
The goal of this work is to consider widespread use of face masks as a non-pharmaceutical control strategy for the Covid-19 pandemic. A SEIR model that divides the population into individuals that wear masks and those that do not is…
In the absence of any available vaccines or drugs, prevention of the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is being achieved by putting many mitigation measures in place. It is indispensable to have robust and reliable ways…
Near-real time estimations of the effective reproduction number are among the most important tools to track the progression of a pandemic and to inform policy makers and the general public. However, these estimations rely on reported case…
In this paper, we propose a dynamical model to describe the transmission of COVID-19, which is spreading in China and many other countries. To avoid a larger outbreak in the worldwide, Chinese government carried out a series of strong…
Pandemic control measures like lock-down, restrictions on restaurants and gatherings, social-distancing have shown to be effective in curtailing the spread of COVID-19. However, their sustained enforcement has negative economic effects. To…
The impact of mitigation or control measures on an epidemics can be estimated by fitting the parameters of a compartmental model to empirical data, and running the model forward with modified parameters that account for a specific measure.…