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Measures to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic require a mix of logistic, political and social capacity. Depending on the country, different approaches to increase hospitalization capacity or to properly apply lock-downs are…
The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions…
We demonstrate the ability of statistical data assimilation to identify the measurements required for accurate state and parameter estimation in an epidemiological model for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19. Our context is an effort…
OBJECTIVES: to describe the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on undetected cases and to evaluate different post-lockdown scenarios. DESIGN: the study introduces a SEIR compartmental model, taking into account the…
We analyze an approach to managing the COVID-19 pandemic without shutting down the economy while staying within the capacity of the healthcare system. We base our analysis on a detailed heterogeneous epidemiological model, which takes into…
A compartmental epidemic model is proposed to predict the Covid-19 virus spread. It considers: both detected and undetected infected populations, medical quarantine and social sequestration, release from sequestration, plus possible…
To strengthen inferences meta analyses are commonly used to summarize information from a set of independent studies. In some cases, though, the data may not satisfy the assumptions underlying the meta analysis. Using three Bayesian methods…
We propose a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a homogeneously mixing non constant population, and generalize it to a model where the parameters are given by piecewise constant functions. This allows us to…
Despite the widespread testing protocols for COVID-19, there are still significant challenges in early detection of the disease, which is crucial for preventing its spread and optimizing patient outcomes. Owing to the limited testing…
Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…
After the breakout of the disease caused by the new virus COVID-19, the mitigation stage has been reached in most of the countries in the world. During this stage, a more accurate data analysis of the daily reported cases and other…
Breaking a complex bio-social phenomenon (epidemic) into its components, considering the processes that determine its dynamics, formalizing the accepted hypotheses in mathematical equations, selecting appropriate experimental and…
COVID-19 has resulted in a public health global crisis. The pandemic control necessitates epidemic models that capture the trends and impacts on infectious individuals. Many exciting models can implement this but they lack practical…
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly challenged traditional epidemiological models due to factors such as delayed diagnosis, asymptomatic transmission, isolation-induced contact changes, and underreported mortality. In response to these…
Since the beginning of the epidemic, daily reports of CoViD-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from around the world have been publicly available. This paper describes methods to characterize broad features of the spread of the disease,…
Implementing a lockdown for disease mitigation is a balancing act: Non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce disease transmission significantly, but interventions also have considerable societal costs. Therefore, decision-makers need near…
In this paper we conduct a simulation study of the spread of an epidemic like COVID-19 with temporary immunity on finite spatial and non-spatial network models. In particular, we assume that an epidemic spreads stochastically on a…
A phenomenological model to describe the Corona Virus(covid-19) Pandemic spread in a given population is developed. It enables the identification of the key quantities required to form adequate policies for control and mitigation in terms…
During the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen of COVID-19. Among those NPIs, quarantine measures were…
Due to modern transportation networks (airplanes, cruise ships, etc.) an epidemic in a given country or city may be triggered by the arrival of external infected agents. Posterior government quarantine policies are usually taken in order to…