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Accurate forecasts of electricity prices are crucial for the management of electric power systems and the development of smart applications. European electricity prices have risen substantially and became highly volatile after the Russian…
This study investigates enhancing option pricing by extending the Black-Scholes model to include stochastic volatility and interest rate variability within the Partial Differential Equation (PDE). The PDE is solved using the finite…
The aim of this paper is to present a simple stochastic model that accounts for the effects of a long-memory in volatility on option pricing. The starting point is the stochastic Black-Scholes equation involving volatility with long-range…
State-space models (SSM) with Markov switching offer a powerful framework for detecting multiple regimes in time series, analyzing mutual dependence and dynamics within regimes, and asserting transitions between regimes. These models…
This article is devoted to some time-changed stochastic models based on multivariate stable processes. The considered models have several advantages in comparison with classical time-changed Brownian motions - for instance, it turns out…
This paper considers the asset price p as relations C=pV between the value C and the volume V of the executed transactions and studies the consequences of this definition for the option pricing equations. We show that the classical BSM…
In an observed generalized semi-Markov regime, estimation of transition rate of regime switching leads towards calculation of locally risk minimizing option price. Despite the uniform convergence of estimated step function of transition…
In recent studies the truncated Levy process (TLP) has been shown to be very promising for the modeling of financial dynamics. In contrast to the Levy process, the TLP has finite moments and can account for both the previously observed…
Black-Scholes (BS) is the standard mathematical model for option pricing in financial markets. Option prices are calculated using an analytical formula whose main inputs are strike (at which price to exercise) and volatility. The BS…
Option pricing in real markets faces fundamental challenges. The Black--Scholes--Merton (BSM) model assumes constant volatility and uses a linear generator $g(t,x,y,z)=-ry$, while lacking explicit behavioral factors, resulting in systematic…
We compute the value of a variance swap when the underlying is modeled as a Markov process time changed by a L\'{e}vy subordinator. In this framework, the underlying may exhibit jumps with a state-dependent L\'{e}vy measure, local…
Regime-switching models, in particular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) where the switching is driven by an unobservable Markov chain, are widely-used in financial applications, due to their tractability and good econometric properties. In this…
Pricing financial or real options with arbitrary payoffs in regime-switching models is an important problem in finance. Mathematically, it is to solve, under certain standard assumptions, a general form of optimal stopping problems in…
We consider a 2-dimensional marked Hawkes process with increasing baseline intensity in order to model prices on electricity intraday markets. This model allows to represent different empirical facts such as increasing market activity,…
Energy markets exhibit complex causal relationships between weather patterns, generation technologies, and price formation, with regime changes occurring continuously rather than at discrete break points. Current approaches model…
Pricing of high-dimensional options is one of the most important problems in Mathematical Finance. The objective of this manuscript is to present an original self-contained treatment of the multidimensional pricing. During the past decades…
Prices of European call options in a regime-switching local volatility model can be computed by solving a parabolic system which generalises the classical Black and Scholes equation, giving these prices as functionals of the local…
Using a suitable change of probability measure, we obtain a novel Poisson series representation for the arbitrage- free price process of vulnerable contingent claims in a regime-switching market driven by an underlying continuous- time…
In this paper we present elementary computations for some Markov modulated counting processes, also called counting processes with regime switching. Regime switching has become an increasingly popular concept in many branches of science. In…
Continuous-time stochastic systems have attracted a lot of attention recently, due to their wide-spread use in finance for modelling price-dynamics. More recently models taking into accounts shocks have been developed by assuming that the…