Related papers: A quantitative framework for exploring exit strate…

This article considers the minimization of the total number of infected individuals over the course of an epidemic in which the rate of infectious contacts can be reduced by time-dependent nonpharmaceutical interventions. The societal and…

Are COVID-19 fatalities large when a federal government does not enforce containment policies and instead allow states to implement their own policies? We answer this question by developing a stochastic extension of a SIRD epidemiological…

The paper addresses the question of lives versus livelihood in an SIRD model augmented with a macroeconomic structure. The constraints on the availability of health facilities - both infrastructure and health workers determine the…

As we reach the apex of the COVID-19 pandemic, the most pressing question facing us is: can we even partially reopen the economy without risking a second wave? We first need to understand if shutting down the economy helped. And if it did,…

The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged authorities at different levels of government administration around the globe. When faced with diseases of this severity, it is useful for the authorities to have prediction tools to estimate in advance…

Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…

Background: To assist policy makers in taking adequate decisions to stop the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, accurate forecasting of the disease propagation is of paramount importance. Materials and Methods: This paper presents a deep learning…

Until now, Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has caused more than 850,000 deaths and infected more than 27 million individuals in over 120 countries. Besides principal polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests, automatically identifying positive samples…

The rapid spreading of SARS-CoV-2 and its dramatic consequences, are forcing policymakers to take strict measures in order to keep the population safe. At the same time, societal and economical interactions are to be safeguarded. A wide…

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging respiratory disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with rapid human-to-human transmission and a high case fatality rate particularly in older…

We develop an agent-based model to assess the cumulative number of deaths during hypothetical Covid-19-like epidemics for various non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. We consider local and non-local modes of disease transmission. The…

The deadly coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has gone out of control globally. Despite much effort by scientists, medical experts, and society in general, the…

In the absence of other tools, monitoring the effects of protective measures, including social distancing and forecasting the outcome of outbreaks is of immense interest. Real-time data is noisy and very often hampered by systematic errors…

During 2020 and 2021, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission has been increasing amongst the world's population at an alarming rate. Reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and other diseases that are spread in…

A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…

How to avoid a second wave of COVID-19 after reopening the economy is a pressing question. The extremely high basic reproductive number $R_0$ (5.7 to 6.4, shown in new studies) of SARS-CoV-2 further complicates the challenge. Here we assess…

In this work, we simulate the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in a population modeled as a network of groups wherein infection can propagate both via intra-group and via inter-group interactions. Our results emphasize the importance of…

Purpose: In this study we propose to identify significant economic, political, and social factors that helped contribute to the incidence and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 around the world during the first seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic.…

Corona VIrus Disease abbreviated as COVID-19 is a novel virus which is initially identified in Wuhan of China in December of 2019 and now this deadly disease has spread all over the world. According to World Health Organization (WHO), a…

Purpose: This paper proposes a methodology and a computational tool to study the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the world and to perform a trend analysis to assess its local dynamics. Methods: Mathematical functions are employed to describe…