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We propose a data-driven approach to quantify the uncertainty of models constructed by kernel methods. Our approach minimizes the needed distributional assumptions, hence, instead of working with, for example, Gaussian processes or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-06 Balázs Csanád Csáji , Krisztián Balázs Kis

Bayesian modelling allows for the quantification of predictive uncertainty which is crucial in safety-critical applications. Yet for many machine learning (ML) algorithms, it is difficult to construct or implement their Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-22 Ziyu Wang , Chris Holmes

Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. Despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Abdulmajid Murad , Frank Alexander Kraemer , Kerstin Bach , Gavin Taylor

Variational quantum algorithms (VQAs) have enabled a wide range of applications on near-term quantum devices. However, their scalability is fundamentally limited by barren plateaus, where the probability of encountering large gradients…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-07-22 Elias Zapusek , Ivan Rojkov , Florentin Reiter

Since the invention of generalized polynomial chaos in 2002, uncertainty quantification has impacted many engineering fields, including variation-aware design automation of integrated circuits and integrated photonics. Due to the fast…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2018-07-06 Chunfeng Cui , Zheng Zhang

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient method and has been widely used for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Recently, there has been a considerable interest in BO literature in optimizing functions that are affected by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-22 Xiaobin Huang , Lei Song , Ke Xue , Chao Qian

We initiate the systematic study of experimental quantum physics from the perspective of computational complexity. To this end, we define the framework of quantum algorithmic measurements (QUALMs), a hybrid of black box quantum algorithms…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-03-09 Dorit Aharonov , Jordan Cotler , Xiao-Liang Qi

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning is currently drawing increasing research interest, driven by the rapid deployment of deep neural networks across different fields, such as computer vision, natural language processing, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-26 Zongren Zou , Xuhui Meng , Apostolos F Psaros , George Em Karniadakis

Fine-scale simulation of complex systems governed by multiscale partial differential equations (PDEs) is computationally expensive and various multiscale methods have been developed for addressing such problems. In addition, it is…

Computational Physics · Physics 2021-06-24 Govinda Anantha Padmanabha , Nicholas Zabaras

Shapley values have emerged as a critical tool for explaining which features impact the decisions made by machine learning models. However, computing exact Shapley values is difficult, generally requiring an exponential (in the feature…

This paper introduces a novel uncertainty quantification framework for regression models where the response takes values in a separable metric space, and the predictors are in a Euclidean space. The proposed algorithms can efficiently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-09 Gábor Lugosi , Marcos Matabuena

Search-based software engineering (SBSE) addresses critical optimization challenges in software engineering, including the next release problem (NRP) and feature selection problem (FSP). While traditional heuristic approaches and integer…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Shuchang Wang , Xiaopeng Qiu , Yingxing Xue , Yanfu Li , Wei Yang

Predicting the outcomes of quantum measurements is a cornerstone of quantum information theory and a key resource for quantum technologies. Here, we introduce a comprehensive framework for quantifying the predictability of measurements on a…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-28 Dennis I. Martínez-Moreno , Miguel Castillo-Celeita , Diego G. Bussandri

Quantifying simulation uncertainties is a critical component of rigorous predictive simulation. A key component of this is forward propagation of uncertainties in simulation input data to output quantities of interest. Typical approaches…

Mathematical Software · Computer Science 2015-11-13 E. Phipps , M. D'Elia , H. C. Edwards , M. Hoemmen , J. Hu , S. Rajamanickam

Safety assurance is critical in the planning and control of robotic systems. For robots operating in the real world, the safety-critical design often needs to explicitly address uncertainties and the pre-computed guarantees often rely on…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Hao Zhou , Yanze Zhang , Wenhao Luo

We show that ensembles of deep neural networks, called deep ensembles, can be used to perform quantum parameter estimation while also providing a means for quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates, which is a key advantage of using…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-09 Amanuel Anteneh

Effective Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) represents a key aspect for reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) in automated decision-making and beyond. Yet, for LLM generation with multiple choice structure, the state-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Ramzi Dakhmouche , Adrien Letellier , Hossein Gorji

Despite the multitude of excellent software components and tools available in the robotics and broader software engineering communities, successful integration of software for robotic systems remains a time-consuming and challenging task…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Steven Swanbeck , Mitch Pryor

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for ensuring the safety and reliability of these models. Traditional UQ methods rely on specifying a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-14 Abhineet Agarwal , Michael Xiao , Rebecca Barter , Omer Ronen , Boyu Fan , Bin Yu

In this paper, we propose a unified approach to harness quantum conformal methods for multi-output distributions, with a particular emphasis on two experimental paradigms: (i) a standard 2-qubit circuit scenario producing a four-dimensional…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-01-22 Emre Tasar