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Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting), and characterizing the statistics of events of a given…
Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other…
Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…
Rare events such as conformational changes in biomolecules, phase transitions, and chemical reactions are central to the behavior of many physical systems, yet they are extremely difficult to study computationally because unbiased…
Many chemical reactions can be formulated in terms of particle diffusion in a complex energy landscape. Transition path theory (TPT) is a theoretical framework for describing the direct (reaction) pathways from reactant to product states…
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are key sources of subseasonal predictability and major drivers of extreme weather in winter. Accurate and efficient probabilistic forecasting of these events remains a persistent challenge for Numerical…
Transition path theory (TPT) offers a powerful formalism for extracting the rate and mechanism of rare dynamical transitions between metastable states. Most applications of TPT either focus on systems with modestly sized state spaces or use…
The Transition Path Theory (TPT) of complex systems has proven a robust means for statistically characterizing the ensemble of trajectories that connect any two preset flow regions, say $\mathcal A$ and $\mathcal B$, directly. More…
Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
Interacting particle systems with many degrees of freedom may undergo phase transitions to sustain atypical fluctuations of dynamical observables such as the current or the activity. This leads in some cases to symmetry-broken space-time…
Given two distinct subsets $A,B$ in the state space of some dynamical system, Transition Path Theory (TPT) was successfully used to describe the statistical behavior of transitions from $A$ to $B$ in the ergodic limit of the stationary…
Computing the return times of extreme events and assessing the impact of climate change on such return times is fundamental to extreme event attribution studies. However, the rarity of such events in the observational record makes this task…
Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as…
Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…
Transition Path Theory (TPT) provides a rigorous statistical characterization of the ensemble of trajectories connecting directly, i.e., without detours, two disconnected (sets of) states in a Markov chain, a stochastic process that…
An impact of climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. However, confidently predicting the likelihood of extreme precipitation at seasonal scales remains an outstanding challenge. Here, we…
The major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events strongly influence the mean structure of the entire atmosphere, from the troposphere to the thermosphere. These events disrupt the compositional and thermal structure of the mesosphere and…
Extreme events occur across the natural, engineering, and socioeconomic sciences, where rare but high-impact episodes can lead to disproportionate consequences that pose major challenges for prediction and risk management. Existing studies…
One of the goals of climate science is to characterize the statistics of extreme and potentially dangerous events in the present and future climate. Extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or floods due to persisting rains are…