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Classical field forecast evaluation relies mainly on local scores such as RMSE or MAE. These metrics severely over-penalize small spatial or temporal displacements of coherent structures, a limitation known as the double-penalty issue and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-20 Cyril Voyant

Data science projects often involve various machine learning (ML) methods that depend on data, code, and models. One of the key activities in these projects is the selection of a model or algorithm that is appropriate for the data analysis…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Cristina Tavares , Nathalia Nascimento , Paulo Alencar , Donald Cowan

Weighting methods are popular tools for estimating causal effects; assessing their robustness under unobserved confounding is important in practice. In the following paper, we introduce a new set of sensitivity models called "variance-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-14 Melody Huang , Samuel D. Pimentel

The global sensitivity analysis of time-dependent processes requires history-aware approaches. We develop for that purpose a variance-based method that leverages the correlation structure of the problems under study and employs surrogate…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-05 Alen Alexanderian , Pierre A. Gremaud , Ralph C. Smith

In the continual effort to improve product quality and decrease operations costs, computational modeling is increasingly being deployed to determine feasibility of product designs or configurations. Surrogate modeling of these computer…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-10 Nathan Wycoff , Mickaël Binois , Robert B. Gramacy

Valvular heart diseases are growing concern in impoverished parts of the world, such as Southern-Africa, claiming more than 31 % of total deaths related to cardiovascular diseases. The ability to model the effects of regurgitant and…

Medical Physics · Physics 2022-04-11 Ryno Laubscher , Jacques Liebenberg , Philip Herbst

Stochastic simulators such as Monte-Carlo estimators are widely used in science and engineering to study physical systems through their probabilistic representation. Global sensitivity analysis aims to identify the input parameters which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-03 Loic Le Gratiet

Bayesian spatial modeling provides a flexible framework for whole-brain fMRI analysis by explicitly incorporating spatial dependencies, overcoming the limitations of traditional massive univariate approaches that lead to information waste.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 Yuan Zhong , Gang Chen , Paul A. Taylor , Jian Kang

In uncertainty quantification, variance-based global sensitivity analysis quantitatively determines the effect of each input random variable on the output by partitioning the total output variance into contributions from each input.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-05-28 Dongjin Lee , Elle Lavichant , Boris Kramer

Crystal plasticity models are a powerful tool for predicting the deformation behaviour of polycrystalline materials accounting for the underlying grain morphology and texture. These models typically have a large number of parameters, an…

Materials Science · Physics 2023-12-20 Hugh Dorward , David M. Knowles , Eralp Demir , Mahmoud Mostafavi , Matthew J. Peel

Variance-based Sobol' sensitivity is one of the most well-known measures in global sensitivity analysis (GSA). However, uncertainties with certain distributions, such as highly skewed distributions or those with a heavy tail, cannot be…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-12 Jiannan Yang

This paper explores the application of active learning strategies to adaptively learn Sobol indices for global sensitivity analysis. We demonstrate that active learning for Sobol indices poses unique challenges due to the definition of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-29 Mohit Chauhan , Mariel Ojeda-Tuz , Ryan Catarelli , Kurtis Gurley , Dimitrios Tsapetis , Michael D. Shields

Time series of individual subjects have become a common data type in psychological research. These data allow one to estimate models of within-subject dynamics, and thereby avoid the notorious problem of making within-subjects inferences…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-16 Jonas M B Haslbeck , Laura F Bringmann , Lourens J Waldorp

Recent developments in cardiovascular modelling allow us to simulate blood flow in an entire human body. Such model can also be used to create databases of virtual subjects, with sizes limited only by computational resources. In this work,…

Medical Physics · Physics 2020-07-01 Janne M. J. Huttunen , Leo Kärkkäinen , Harri Lindholm

Computational models of the cardiovascular system are increasingly used for the diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of cardiovascular disease. Before being used for translational applications, the predictive abilities of these models need…

Applications · Statistics 2024-01-11 Friederike Schäfer , Daniele E. Schiavazzi , Leif Rune Hellevik , Jacob Sturdy

This study demonstrates the capabilities of several methods for analyzing the sensitivity of neural networks to perturbations of the input data and interpreting their underlying mechanisms. The investigated approaches include the Sobol…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-22 Jiaxuan Miao , Sergey Matveev

The estimation of patient-specific tissue properties in the form of model parameters is important for personalized physiological models. However, these tissue properties are spatially varying across the underlying anatomical model,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-19 Jwala Dhamala , Sandesh Ghimire , John L. Sapp , B. Milan Horácek , Linwei Wang

Graphical models describe associations between variables through the notion of conditional independence. Gaussian graphical models are a widely used class of such models where the relationships are formalized by non-null entries of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-08 Sagnik Bhadury , Riten Mitra , Jeremy T. Gaskins

In Bayesian inference prior hyperparameters are chosen subjectively or estimated using empirical Bayes methods. Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI) also has a learning rate hyperparameter. This is compounded in Semi-Modular Inference…

Classical multiple instance learning (MIL) methods are often based on the identical and independent distributed assumption between instances, hence neglecting the potentially rich contextual information beyond individual entities. On the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-06-20 Daniel Reisenbüchler , Sophia J. Wagner , Melanie Boxberg , Tingying Peng