Related papers: Using Network Interbank Contagion in Bank Default …
Supply chain disruptions constitute an often underestimated risk for financial stability. As in financial networks, systemic risks in production networks arises when the local failure of one firm impacts the production of others and might…
Mortgage default prediction is a core task in financial risk management, and machine learning models are increasingly used to estimate default probabilities and provide interpretable signals for downstream decisions. In real-world mortgage…
In this paper, we propose a method that provides a useful technique to compare relationship between risks involved that takes customer become defaulter and debt collection process that might make this defaulter recovered. Through estimation…
Contagion is an extremely important topic in finance. Contagion is at the core of most major financial crises, in particular the 2008 financial crisis. Although various approaches to quantifying contagion have been proposed, many of them…
This paper develops a two-dimensional structural framework for valuing credit default swaps and corporate bonds in the presence of default contagion. Modelling the values of related firms as correlated geometric Brownian motions with…
We consider a structural default model in an interconnected banking network as in Lipton [International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 19(6), 2016], with mutual obligations between each pair of banks. We analyse the model…
Interbank deposits (loans and credits) are quite common in banking system all over the world. Such interbank co-operation is profitable for banks but it can also lead to collective financial failures. In this paper we introduce a new model…
A probabilistic framework is introduced that represents stylized banking networks and aims to predict the size of contagion events. In contrast to previous work on random financial networks, which assumes independent connections between…
In this paper, we introduce an impact centrality measure to evaluate shock propagation on financial networks capturing a notion of contagion and systemic risk contributions, permitting comparisons of these risks over time. In addition, we…
This mini-project models propagation of shocks, in time point, through links in connected banks. In particular, financial network of 100 banks out of which 15 are shocked to default (that is, 85.00% of the banks are solvent) is modelled…
In classical contagion models, default systems are Markovian conditionally on the observation of their stochastic environment, with interacting intensities. This necessitates that the environment evolves autonomously and is not influenced…
This chapter reviews key contributions of complexity science to the study of systemic risk in financial systems. The focus is on network models of financial contagion, where I explore various mechanisms of shock propagation, such as…
This paper introduces a novel framework to study default dependence and systemic risk in a financial network that evolves over time. We analyse several indicators of risk, and develop a new latent space model to assess the health of key…
A key question in many network studies is whether the observed correlations between units are primarily due to contagion or latent confounding. Here, we study this question using a segregated graph (Shpitser, 2015) representation of these…
In spite of the growing theoretical literature on cascades of failures in interbank lending networks, empirical results seem to suggest that networks of direct exposures are not the major channel of financial contagion. In this paper we…
We study the incentives of banks in a financial network, where the network consists of debt contracts and credit default swaps (CDSs) between banks. One of the most important questions in such a system is the problem of deciding which of…
Networked-guarantee loans may cause the systemic risk related concern of the government and banks in China. The prediction of default of enterprise loans is a typical extremely imbalanced prediction problem, and the networked-guarantee make…
In this paper we propose a copula contagion mixture model for correlated default times. The model includes the well known factor, copula, and contagion models as its special cases. The key advantage of such a model is that we can study the…
Banks and financial institutions all over the world manage portfolios containing tens of thousands of customers. Not all customers are high credit-worthy, and many possess varying degrees of risk to the Bank or financial institutions that…
Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the IMF as "the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions", is a key topic in macroprudential policy and financial stress analysis. Specialized models to simulate…