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Generating forecasts for time series with multiple seasonal cycles is an important use-case for many industries nowadays. Accounting for the multi-seasonal patterns becomes necessary to generate more accurate and meaningful forecasts in…

Applications · Statistics 2020-04-28 Kasun Bandara , Christoph Bergmeir , Hansika Hewamalage

In this paper Fourier Transform and Wavelet Transform are applied in case of recent 300 years of sunspot numbers to explain the solar cycles. Here basically parallel study of Fourier and Wavelet analysis are done and we have observed that…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2013-12-11 Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay , Debadatta Dash , Asish Mitra , Prasanta K. Panigrahi

This paper presents a Deep Learning (DL) framework for 48-hour forecasting of temperature, solar irradiance, and relative humidity to support Model Predictive Control (MPC) in smart HVAC systems. The approach employs a stacked Bidirectional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-01 Georgios Vamvouras , Konstantinos Braimakis , Christos Tzivanidis

Accurate renewable energy production forecasting has become a priority as the share of intermittent energy sources on the grid increases. Recent work has shown that convolutional deep learning models can successfully be applied to forecast…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-01-24 Sebastian Bosma , Negar Nazari

We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…

There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2016-06-07 Stefano Sello

This article implements a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based deep learning model for solar-wind prediction. Images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) at 193\.A wavelength are used for training. Solar-wind speed is taken from…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-09-15 Hemapriya Raju , Saurabh Das

We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-06-29 Alejandro Macario-Rojas , Katharine L. Smith , Peter C. E. Roberts

Sunspot numbers provide the longest continuous record of solar activity and remain a key index for heliophysical research and space-weather applications. Standard sunspot determination relies on visual inspection and algorithmic…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-03-25 Fabian C. Quintero-Pareja , Diederik A. Montano-Burbano , Santiago Quintero-Pareja , D. Sierra-Porta

Digitized images of full disk CaK spectroheliograms from two solar observatories were used to study cycle variation of ephemeral regions (ERs) over ten solar cycles 14-23. We calculate monthly averaged unsigned latitude of ERs and compare…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2011-10-20 Andrey G. Tlatov , Alexei A. Pevtsov

In this paper, we present SSDNet, a novel deep learning approach for time series forecasting. SSDNet combines the Transformer architecture with state space models to provide probabilistic and interpretable forecasts, including trend and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-21 Yang Lin , Irena Koprinska , Mashud Rana

A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including early forecasts for cycle 25. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-03-05 Kristof Petrovay

The subject of this paper is the existence and stability of solar cycles with duration in the range of 20-250 years. Five type of data series are used: 1) The Zurich series (1749-2009), the mean annual International sunspot number Ri; 2)…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2010-07-27 B. Komitov , S. Sello , P. Duchlev , M. Dechev , K. Penev , K. Koleva

Building a reliable forecast of solar activity is a long-standing problem that requires to accurately describe past and current global dynamics. However, synoptic observations of magnetic fields and subsurface flows became available…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-07-14 Irina N. Kitiashvili

The paper presents a spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting algorithm using Deep Learning (DL)and in particular, Recurrent Neural Networks(RNNs). Motivated by recent advances in renewable energy integration and smart grids, we apply our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-27 Amir Ghaderi , Borhan M. Sanandaji , Faezeh Ghaderi

Space weather phenomena such as solar flares, have massive destructive power when reaches certain amount of magnitude. Such high magnitude solar flare event can interfere space-earth radio communications and neutralize space-earth…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-01-19 Vlad Landa , Yuval Reuveni

Accurate, reliable solar flare prediction is crucial for mitigating potential disruptions to critical infrastructure, while predicting solar flares remains a significant challenge. Existing methods based on heuristic physical features often…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Shunya Nagashima , Komei Sugiura

Space weather indices are used commonly to drive forecasts of thermosphere density, which directly affects objects in low-Earth orbit (LEO) through atmospheric drag. One of the most commonly used space weather proxies, $F_{10.7 cm}$,…

Space Physics · Physics 2023-06-06 Joshua D. Daniell , Piyush M. Mehta

Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 2023 by using Rome (cycles 2021) and Learmonth Solar…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2011-11-18 A. Kilcik , V. B. Yurchyshyn , V. Abramenko , P. R. Goode , A. Ozguc , J. P. Rozelot , W. Cao

Operational flare forecasting aims at providing predictions that can be used to make decisions, typically at a daily scale, about the space weather impacts of flare occurrence. This study shows that video-based deep learning can be used for…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-09-13 Sabrina Guastavino , Francesco Marchetti , Federico Benvenuto , Cristina Campi , Michele Piana
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