Related papers: COVID-19: Nowcasting Reproduction Factors Using Bi…
Since the beginning of the corona pandemic in March 2020, various parameters for describing the spread of the disease have been specified for Germany in addition to the daily infection figures (new infections and total infections), which…
The relative case fatality rates (CFRs) between groups and countries are key measures of relative risk that guide policy decisions regarding scarce medical resource allocation during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In the middle of an active…
When an infectious disease strikes a population, the number of newly reported cases is often the only available information that one can obtain during early stages of the outbreak. An important goal of early outbreak analysis is to obtain a…
Near-real time estimations of the effective reproduction number are among the most important tools to track the progression of a pandemic and to inform policy makers and the general public. However, these estimations rely on reported case…
In the last year many public health decisions were based on real-time monitoring the spread of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. For this one often considers the reproduction number which measures the amount of secondary cases produced by a…
This paper proposes a structural econometric approach to estimating the basic reproduction number ($\mathcal{R}_{0}$) of Covid-19. This approach identifies $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ in a panel regression model by filtering out the effects of…
One clear aspect of behaviour in the COVID-19 pandemic has been people's focus on, and response to, reported or observed infection numbers in their community. We describe a simple model of infectious disease spread in a pandemic situation…
This paper is an exploratory study of two epidemiological questions on a worldwide basis. How fast is the disease spreading? Are the restrictions (especially mobility restrictions) for people bring the expected effect? To answer the first…
In the face of an infectious disease, a key epidemiological measure is the basic reproduction number, which quantifies the average secondary infections caused by a single case in a susceptible population. In practice, the effective…
This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…
In this paper, we consider a discrete-time stochastic SIR model, where the transmission rate and the true number of infectious individuals are random and unobservable. An advantage of this model is that it permits us to account for random…
The expected number of secondary infections arising from each index case, referred to as the reproduction or $R$ number, is a vital summary statistic for understanding and managing epidemic diseases. There are many methods for estimating…
The effective reproduction number $R_t$ measures an infectious disease's transmissibility as the number of secondary infections in one reproduction time in a population having both susceptible and non-susceptible hosts. Current approaches…
Basic and instantaneous reproduction numbers, "R" _"0" and "R" _"t" , are important metrics to assess progress of an epidemic and effectiveness of preventative interventions undertaken, and also to estimate coverage needed for vaccination.…
Aim of this manuscript is to show a simple method to infer the time-course of new COVID-19 infections (the most important information in order to establish the effect of containment strategies) from available aggregated data, such as number…
The time-varying effective reproduction number $R_t$ is a widely used indicator of transmission dynamics during infectious disease outbreaks. Timely estimates of $R_t$ can be obtained from observations close to the original date of…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic, a wide range of epidemiological modelling approaches have been used to predict the effective reproduction number, R(t), and other COVID-19 related measures such as the daily rate of exponential growth, r(t).…
Due to delay in reporting, the daily national and statewide COVID-19 incidence counts are often unreliable and need to be estimated from recent data. This process is known in economics as nowcasting. We describe in this paper a simple…
The new corona virus disease -- COVID-2019 -- is rapidly spreading through the world. The availability of unbiased timely statistics of trends in disease events are a key to effective responses. But due to reporting delays, the most…
Timely prediction of the COVID-19 progression is not possible without a comprehensive understanding of environmental factors that may affect the infection transmissibility. Studies addressing parameters that may influence COVID-19…