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We introduce a class of neural networks derived from probabilistic models in the form of Bayesian networks. By imposing additional assumptions about the nature of the probabilistic models represented in the networks, we derive neural…
Vector space models have become popular in distributional semantics, despite the challenges they face in capturing various semantic phenomena. We propose a novel probabilistic framework which draws on both formal semantics and recent…
There is significant growth and interest in the use of synthetic data as an enabler for machine learning in environments where the release of real data is restricted due to privacy or availability constraints. Despite a large number of…
Mechanistic models can provide an intuitive and interpretable explanation of network growth by specifying a set of generative rules. These rules can be defined by domain knowledge about real-world mechanisms governing network growth or may…
In general, the best explanation for a given observation makes no promises on how good it is with respect to other alternative explanations. A major deficiency of message-passing schemes for belief revision in Bayesian networks is their…
This paper examines Bayesian belief network inference using simulation as a method for computing the posterior probabilities of network variables. Specifically, it examines the use of a method described by Henrion, called logic sampling,…
We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…
A substantial generalisation is put forward of the theory of subjective fiducial inference as it was outlined in earlier papers. In particular, this theory is extended to deal with cases where the data are discrete or categorical rather…
Modern generative models exhibit unprecedented capabilities to generate extremely realistic data. However, given the inherent compositionality of the real world, reliable use of these models in practical applications requires that they…
Probabilistic approaches for tensor factorization aim to extract meaningful structure from incomplete data by postulating low rank constraints. Recently, variational Bayesian (VB) inference techniques have successfully been applied to large…
A method is described, which computes from an observed sample of events upper limits for production rates of particles, or, in case of appearance of a signal, the probability for an upwards fluctuation of the background. For any candidate,…
Conditional image synthesis based on user-specified requirements is a key component in creating complex visual content. In recent years, diffusion-based generative modeling has become a highly effective way for conditional image synthesis,…
One of the main problems of importance sampling in Bayesian networks is representation of the importance function, which should ideally be as close as possible to the posterior joint distribution. Typically, we represent an importance…
The goal of causal inference is to understand the outcome of alternative courses of action. However, all causal inference requires assumptions. Such assumptions can be more influential than in typical tasks for probabilistic modeling, and…
We formulate the inverse problem in a Bayesian framework and aim to train a generative model that allows us to simulate (i.e., sample from the likelihood) and do inference (i.e., sample from the posterior). We review the use of triangular…
We consider discrete nonparametric priors which induce Gibbs-type exchangeable random partitions and investigate their posterior behavior in detail. In particular, we deduce conditional distributions and the corresponding Bayesian…
This paper presents a procedure to determine a complete belief function from the known values of belief for some of the subsets of the frame of discerment. The method is based on the principle of minimum commitment and a new principle…
In this paper, we present a decision support system based on belief functions and the pignistic transformation. The system is an integration of an evidential system for belief function propagation and a valuation-based system for Bayesian…
Estimating the counterfactual outcome of treatment is essential for decision-making in public health and clinical science, among others. Often, treatments are administered in a sequential, time-varying manner, leading to an exponentially…
In this article, we review selective inference, a set of techniques for inference when the statistical question asked is a function of the data. This setting often arises in contemporary scientific workflows, where hypotheses and parameters…