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The integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) method has become a widely utilized tool for researchers and practitioners seeking to perform approximate Bayesian inference across various fields of application. To address the growing…

Computation · Statistics 2023-11-15 Esmail Abdul-Fattah , Janet Van Niekerk , Haavard Rue

We develop Bayesian nonparametric models for spatially indexed data of mixed type. Our work is motivated by challenges that occur in environmental epidemiology, where the usual presence of several confounding variables that exhibit complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-17 Georgios Papageorgiou , Sylvia Richardson , Nicky Best

Large neural networks trained on large datasets have become the dominant paradigm in machine learning. These systems rely on maximum likelihood point estimates of their parameters, precluding them from expressing model uncertainty. This may…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Javier Antoran

This paper proposes a two-stage estimation approach for a spatial misalignment scenario that is motivated by the epidemiological problem of linking pollutant exposures and health outcomes. We use the integrated nested Laplace approximation…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-21 Stephen Jun Villejo , Janine B Illian , Ben Swallow

We introduce a framework for updating large scale geospatial processes using a model-data synthesis method based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling. Two major challenges come from updating large-scale Gaussian process and modelling…

Applications · Statistics 2018-05-01 Zhe Sha , Jonathan Rougier , Maike Schumacher , Jonathan Bamber

Bayesian inference is a popular method to build learning algorithms but it is hampered by the fact that its key object, the posterior probability distribution, is often uncomputable. Expectation Propagation (EP) (Minka (2001)) is a popular…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-16 Guillaume P. Dehaene

Obtaining high-resolution maps of precipitation data can provide key insights to stakeholders to assess a sustainable access to water resources at urban scale. Mapping a nonstationary, sparse process such as precipitation at very high…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-08 Jiachen Zhang , Matthew Bonas , Diogo Bolster , Geir-Arne Fuglstad , Stefano Castruccio

In this article, we study Bayesian inverse problems with multi-layered Gaussian priors. We first describe the conditionally Gaussian layers in terms of a system of stochastic partial differential equations. We build the computational…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-30 Muhammad Emzir , Sari Lasanen , Zenith Purisha , Lassi Roininen , Simo Särkkä

Robust time series analysis is an important subject in statistical modeling. Models based on Gaussian distribution are sensitive to outliers, which may imply in a significant degradation in estimation performance as well as in prediction…

Computational models support high-stakes decisions across engineering and science, and practitioners increasingly seek probabilistic predictions to quantify uncertainty in such models. Existing approaches generate predictions either by…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Rileigh Bandy , Enrico Camporeale , Andong Hu , Thomas Berger , Rebecca Morrison

Spatial data are often derived from multiple sources (e.g. satellites, in-situ sensors, survey samples) with different supports, but associated with the same properties of a spatial phenomenon of interest. It is common for predictors to…

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) encompass large class of statistical models, with a vast range of applications areas. GLMM extends the linear mixed models allowing for different types of response variable. Three most common data…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-25 Wagner Hugo Bonat , Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro , Silvia emiko Shimakura

Spatial misalignment arises when datasets are aggregated or collected at different spatial scales, leading to information loss. We develop a Bayesian disaggregation framework that links misaligned data to a continuous-domain model through…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Man Ho Suen , Mark Naylor , Finn Lindgren

A Bayesian approach to predicting traffic flows at signalised intersections is considered using the the INLA framework. INLA is a deterministic, computationally efficient alternative to MCMC for estimating a posterior distribution. It is…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-09 D. Townsend , C. Nel

We define a novel class of additive models, called Extended Latent Gaussian Models, that allow for a wide range of response distributions and flexible relationships between the additive predictor and mean response. The new class covers a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-13 Alex Stringer , Patrick Brown , Jamie Stafford

The analysis of case-control point pattern data is an important problem in spatial epidemiology. The spatial variation of cases if often compared to that of a set of controls to assess spatial risk variation as well as the detection of risk…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-20 Francisco Palmí-Perales , Finn Lindgren , Virgilio Gómez-Rubio

The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is a popular model for analyzing and forecasting extreme weather data. To increase prediction accuracy, spatial information is often pooled via a latent Gaussian process (GP) on the GEV…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-20 Meixi Chen , Reza Ramezan , Martin Lysy

We present a novel Bayesian spatial disaggregation model for count data, providing fast and flexible inference at high resolution. First, it incorporates non-linear covariate effects using penalized splines, a flexible approach that is not…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Sara Rutten , Thomas Neyens , Elisa Duarte , Christel Faes

Bayesian predictive inference provides a coherent description of entire predictive uncertainty through predictive distributions. We examine several widely used sparsity priors from the predictive (as opposed to estimation) inference…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-03 Veronika Rockova

Measurement error (ME) and missing values in covariates are often unavoidable in disciplines that deal with data, and both problems have separately received considerable attention during the past decades. However, while most researchers are…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-28 Emma Sofie Skarstein , Sara Martino , Stefanie Muff