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Related papers: Causal Bayesian Optimization

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In decision-making problems, the outcome of an intervention often depends on the causal relationships between system components and is highly costly to evaluate. In such settings, causal Bayesian optimization (CBO) can exploit the causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-21 Shriya Bhatija , Paul-David Zuercher , Jakob Thumm , Thomas Bohné

We propose constrained causal Bayesian optimization (cCBO), an approach for finding interventions in a known causal graph that optimize a target variable under some constraints. cCBO first reduces the search space by exploiting the graph…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-14 Virginia Aglietti , Alan Malek , Ira Ktena , Silvia Chiappa

Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO) is a methodology designed to optimize an outcome variable by leveraging known causal relationships through targeted interventions. Traditional CBO methods require a fully and accurately specified causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-26 Jean Durand , Yashas Annadani , Stefan Bauer , Sonali Parbhoo

This paper studies the problem of performing a sequence of optimal interventions in a causal dynamical system where both the target variable of interest and the inputs evolve over time. This problem arises in a variety of domains e.g.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-27 Virginia Aglietti , Neil Dhir , Javier González , Theodoros Damoulas

We propose functional causal Bayesian optimization (fCBO), a method for finding interventions that optimize a target variable in a known causal graph. fCBO extends the CBO family of methods to enable functional interventions, which set a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-14 Limor Gultchin , Virginia Aglietti , Alexis Bellot , Silvia Chiappa

How should we intervene on an unknown structural equation model to maximize a downstream variable of interest? This setting, also known as causal Bayesian optimization (CBO), has important applications in medicine, ecology, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-13 Scott Sussex , Anastasiia Makarova , Andreas Krause

We study the problem of globally optimising a target variable of an unknown causal graph on which a sequence of soft or hard interventions can be performed. The problem of optimising the target variable associated with a causal graph is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Sumantrak Mukherjee , Mengyan Zhang , Seth Flaxman , Sebastian Josef Vollmer

We introduce a unified framework for contextual and causal Bayesian optimisation, which aims to design intervention policies maximising the expectation of a target variable. Our approach leverages both observed contextual information and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Vahan Arsenyan , Antoine Grosnit , Haitham Bou-Ammar , Arnak Dalalyan

We study the problem of globally optimizing the causal effect on a target variable of an unknown causal graph in which interventions can be performed. This problem arises in many areas of science including biology, operations research and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-26 Nicola Branchini , Virginia Aglietti , Neil Dhir , Theodoros Damoulas

Causal discovery is crucial for understanding complex systems and informing decisions. While observational data can uncover causal relationships under certain assumptions, it often falls short, making active interventions necessary. Current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Yuxuan Wang , Mingzhou Liu , Xinwei Sun , Wei Wang , Yizhou Wang

In Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO), an agent intervenes on an unknown structural causal model to maximize a downstream reward variable. In this paper, we consider the generalization where other agents or external events also intervene on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-02 Scott Sussex , Pier Giuseppe Sessa , Anastasiia Makarova , Andreas Krause

Bayesian optimization is a class of data efficient model based algorithms typically focused on global optimization. We consider the more general case where a user is faced with multiple problems that each need to be optimized conditional on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-04 Michael Pearce , Janis Klaise , Matthew Groves

Maximizing a target variable as an operational objective within a structural causal model is a fundamental problem. Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO) approaches typically achieve this either by performing interventions that modify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Shaogang Ren , Zihao Wang , Yuzhou Chen , Xiaoning Qian

Discovering optimal designs through sequential data collection is essential in many real-world applications. While Bayesian Optimization (BO) has achieved remarkable success in this setting, growing attention has recently turned to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-22 Chih-Yu Chang , Qiyuan Chen , Tianhan Gao , David Fenning , Chinedum Okwudire , Neil Dasgupta , Wei Lu , Raed Al Kontar

Multi-Source Bayesian Optimization (MSBO) serves as a variant of the traditional Bayesian Optimization (BO) framework applicable to situations involving optimization of an objective black-box function over multiple information sources such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Luuk Jacobs , Mohammad Ali Javidian

We study the problem of causal discovery through targeted interventions. Starting from few observational measurements, we follow a Bayesian active learning approach to perform those experiments which, in expectation with respect to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-10 Julius von Kügelgen , Paul K Rubenstein , Bernhard Schölkopf , Adrian Weller

Optimizing objectives under constraints, where both the objectives and constraints are black box functions, is a common scenario in real-world applications such as scientific experimental design, design of medical therapies, and industrial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-16 Fengxue Zhang , Zejie Zhu , Yuxin Chen

Sequential experimental design to discover interventions that achieve a desired outcome is a key problem in various domains including science, engineering and public policy. When the space of possible interventions is large, making an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-17 Jiaqi Zhang , Louis Cammarata , Chandler Squires , Themistoklis P. Sapsis , Caroline Uhler

Contextual Bayesian Optimization (CBO) efficiently optimizes black-box functions with respect to design variables, while simultaneously integrating contextual information regarding the environment, such as experimental conditions. However,…

Bayesian optimization has emerged as a prominent methodology for optimizing expensive black-box functions by leveraging Gaussian process surrogates, which focus on capturing the global characteristics of the objective function. However, in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Qiyu Wei , Haowei Wang , Richard Allmendinger , Mauricio A. Álvarez
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