Related papers: Macroeconomic factors for inflation in Argentine 2…
This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between the inflation rate and its proximate determinants in Argentina, using quarterly data over the period 2004-2022 and an error-correction vector model approach. Unlike previous literature,…
Traditional macroeconomic models, based on static algebraic systems, fail to capture the dynamics of a bimonetary economy like Argentina's. This paper proposes a framework based on category theory to develop a more flexible and structured…
The classifications of inflationary regimes proposed in the literature have mostly been based on arbitrary characterizations, subject to value judgments by researchers. The objective of this study is to propose a new methodological approach…
Assessing the contribution of various risk factors to future inflation risks was crucial for guiding monetary policy during the recent high inflation period. However, existing methodologies often provide limited insights by focusing solely…
This paper examines the drivers of CPI inflation through the lens of a simple, but computationally intensive machine learning technique. More specifically, it predicts inflation across 20 advanced countries between 2000 and 2021, relying on…
The stability of the inflation rate is a necessary condition for the proper functioning of any capitalist economy. In an economic environment with volatile inflation, the growth of the economy and its distribution among the agents of…
We analyze the forces that explain inflation using a panel of 122 countries from 1997 to 2015 with 37 regressors. 98 models motivated by economic theory are compared to a gradient boosting algorithm, non-linearities and structural breaks…
In this paper, we forecast euro area inflation and its main components using an econometric model which exploits a massive number of time series on survey expectations for the European Commission's Business and Consumer Survey. To make…
The objective of this paper is to find the existence of a relationship between stock market prices and the fundamental macroeconomic indicators. We build a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model comprising of nine major macroeconomic indicators…
In a globalised world, inflation in a given country may be becoming less responsive to domestic economic activity, while being increasingly determined by international conditions. Consequently, understanding the international sources of…
The analysis of the effects of monetary policy shocks using the common econometric models (such as VAR or SVAR) poses several empirical anomalies. However, it is known that in these econometric models the use of a large amount of…
The following measures against unemployment are proposed: In the short term, to promote greater income for the poorest sectors. It is shown that this can be paid with the resulting increased production, without losing income to the other…
The notion that an independent central bank reduces a country's inflation is a controversial hypothesis. To date, it has not been possible to satisfactorily answer this question because the complex macroeconomic structure that gives rise to…
The modal factor model represents a new factor model for dimension reduction in high dimensional panel data. Unlike the approximate factor model that targets for the mean factors, it captures factors that influence the conditional mode of…
We develop a medium-size semi-structural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view - often expressed by central banks - that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a…
Macro-economic models describe the dynamics of economic quantities. The estimations and forecasts produced by such models play a substantial role for financial and political decisions. In this contribution we describe an approach based on…
This article investigates the fundamental factors influencing the rate and manner of Electoral participation with an economic model-based approach. In this study, the structural parameters affecting people's decision making are divided into…
The intricate dynamics of stock markets have led to extensive research on models that are able to effectively explain their inherent complexities. This study leverages the econometrics literature to explore the dynamic factor model as an…
Global concern over food prices and security has been exacerbated by the impacts of armed conflicts such as the Russia Ukraine War, pandemic diseases, and climate change. Traditionally, analyzing global food prices and their associations…
The main objective of this paper is to Identify which macroe conomic factors and industrial indexes influenced the total Brazilian banking spread between March 2011 and March 2015. This paper considers subclassification of industrial…