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Through a redefinition of patterns in an Hopfield-like model, we introduce and develop an approach to model discrete systems made up of many, interacting components with inner degrees of freedom. Our approach clarifies the intrinsic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-19 Elena Agliari , Adriano Barra

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Maximilian Nickel , Matthew Le

The Hawkes process (HP) is commonly used to model event sequences with self-reinforcing dynamics, including electronic health records (EHRs). Traditional HPs capture self-reinforcement via parametric impact functions that can be inspected…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-23 Yuankang Zhao , Matthew Engelhard

This paper investigates a financial market where returns depend on an unobservable Gaussian drift process. While the observation of returns yields information about the underlying drift, we also incorporate discrete-time expert opinions as…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-11-04 Jörn Sass , Dorothee Westphal , Ralf Wunderlich

Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-02 Maya Sadeler Perrin , Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Adeline Samson

Detecting rare events, those defined to give rise to high impact but have a low probability of occurring, is a challenge in a number of domains including meteorological, environmental, financial and economic. The use of machine learning to…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-13 Santhosh Narayanan , Carsten Maple , Mark Hooper

Hypoelliptic diffusion processes can be used to model a variety of phenomena in applications ranging from molecular dynamics to audio signal analysis. We study parameter estimation for such processes in situations where we observe some…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-10-30 Y. Pokern , A. M. Stuart , P. Wiberg

Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Xiuyuan Cheng , Tingnan Gong , Yao Xie

The social contagion literature makes a distinction between simple (independent cascade or bond percolation processes that pass infections through edges) and complex contagions (bootstrap percolation or threshold processes that require…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-05-05 Vahid Shamsaddini , M. Amin Rahimian

Event-based cameras (EBCs) are an attractive sensing modality for surveillance due to their reporting of pixel-level radiance changes with microsecond resolution and high dynamic range, enabling motion extraction while suppressing…

Optics · Physics 2026-05-18 Megan Birch , James Rick , Adrish Kar , Jason Zutty , Joseph L. Greene

Living systems have time-evolving interactions that, until recently, could not be identified accurately from recorded time series in the presence of noise. Stankovski et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett. 109 024101, 2012) introduced a method based on…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-01-14 Andrea Duggento , Tomislav Stankovski , Peter V. E. McClintock , Aneta Stefanovska

A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-07-24 Takahiro Omi , Yoshito Hirata , Kazuyuki Aihara

Basic experimental facts related to ARPES, tunnelling, optics ad neutron scattering measurements are discussed. They give evidence for the relevance of the electron-phonon interaction (EPI) in pairing mechanism of HTSC cuprates. A…

Superconductivity · Physics 2007-05-23 Miodrag L. Kulic

Hawkes processes have recently gained increasing attention from the machine learning community for their versatility in modeling event sequence data. While they have a rich history going back decades, some of their properties, such as…

The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Rui Zhang , Christian Walder , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu

We prove a law of large numbers and a functional central limit theorem for multivariate Hawkes processes observed over a time interval $[0,T]$ in the limit $T \rightarrow \infty$. We further exhibit the asymptotic behaviour of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-07 Emmanuel Bacry , Sylvain Delattre , Marc Hoffmann , Jean François Muzy

Asynchronous trading in high-frequency financial markets introduces significant biases into econometric analysis, distorting risk estimates and leading to suboptimal portfolio decisions. Existing synchronization methods, such as the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-17 Xinbing Kong , Cheng Liu , Bin Wu

Non-Hermitian systems can manifest rich static and dynamical properties at their exceptional points (EPs). Here, we identify yet another class of distinct phenomena that is hinged on EPs, namely, the emergence of a series of non-Hermitian…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-03 Zuo Wang , Liang He

Exceptional points (EPs) represent non-Hermitian degeneracies where eigenvalues and eigenvectors coalesce, giving rise to enhanced sensitivity and critically damped dynamics. We demonstrate that when an EP coincides with a dissipative phase…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Jongjun M. Lee

Hawkes Processes capture self-excitation and mutual-excitation between events when the arrival of an event makes future events more likely to happen. Identification of such temporal covariance can reveal the underlying structure to better…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-03 Rafael Lima , Jaesik Choi