Related papers: Scalable Bayesian inference for self-excitatory st…
Self-exciting spatiotemporal Hawkes processes have found increasing use in the study of large-scale public health threats ranging from gun violence and earthquakes to wildfires and viral contagion. Whereas many such applications feature…
We investigate spatio-temporal event analysis using point processes. Inferring the dynamics of event sequences spatiotemporally has many practical applications including crime prediction, social media analysis, and traffic forecasting. In…
Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…
Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the…
Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…
Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events…
Fueled in part by recent applications in neuroscience, the multivariate Hawkes process has become a popular tool for modeling the network of interactions among high-dimensional point process data. While evaluating the uncertainty of the…
The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…
Multivariate Hawkes processes are a widely used class of self-exciting point processes, but maximum likelihood estimation naively scales as $O(N^2)$ in the number of events. The canonical linear exponential Hawkes process admits a faster…
Existing spatio-temporal Hawkes process models typically rely on either parametric or semiparametric assumptions, limiting the model's ability to capture complex endogenous and exogenous event dynamics. We propose a fully Bayesian…
Predicting discrete events in time and space has many scientific applications, such as predicting hazardous earthquakes and outbreaks of infectious diseases. History-dependent spatio-temporal Hawkes processes are often used to…
Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time--continuous point processes with history dependence. Here we propose an extended model where the self--effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory type and follow a Gaussian Process.…
The Hawkes process has garnered attention in recent years for its suitability to describe the behavior of online information cascades. Here, we present a fully tractable approach to analytically describe the distribution of the number of…
We propose a novel framework for integrating Hawkes processes with multi-armed bandit algorithms to solve spatio-temporal event forecasting and detection problems when data may be undersampled or spatially biased. In particular, we…
Hawkes processes have recently risen to the forefront of tools when it comes to modeling and generating sequential events data. Multidimensional Hawkes processes model both the self and cross-excitation between different types of events and…
Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…
We consider the stochastic volatility model obtained by adding a compound Hawkes process to the volatility of the well-known Heston model. A Hawkes process is a self-exciting counting process with many applications in mathematical finance,…
As a tool for capturing irregular temporal dependencies (rather than resorting to binning temporal observations to construct time series), Hawkes processes with exponential decay have seen widespread adoption across many application…
A key difficulty that arises from real event data is imprecision in the recording of event time-stamps. In many cases, retaining event times with a high precision is expensive due to the sheer volume of activity. Combined with practical…
The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…