Related papers: Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Pre…

Motivated by the analysis of accelerometer data, we introduce a specific finite mixture of hidden Markov models with particular characteristics that adapt well to the specific nature of this type of data. Our model allows for the…

This paper intends to apply the Hidden Markov Model into stock market and and make predictions. Moreover, four different methods of improvement, which are GMM-HMM, XGB-HMM, GMM-HMM+LSTM and XGB-HMM+LSTM, will be discussed later with the…

Here, we explore the problem of error propagation mitigation in modular digital twins as a sequential decision process. Building on a companion study that used a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to infer latent error regimes from surrogate-physics…

We present an algorithm for learning mixtures of Markov chains and Markov decision processes (MDPs) from short unlabeled trajectories. Specifically, our method handles mixtures of Markov chains with optional control input by going through a…

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

Traditional stock market prediction methods commonly only utilize the historical trading data, ignoring the fact that stock market fluctuations can be impacted by various other information sources such as stock related events. Although some…

Mixture models are probabilistic models aimed at uncovering and representing latent subgroups within a population. In the realm of network data analysis, the latent subgroups of nodes are typically identified by their connectivity…

We explore the use of traditional and contemporary hidden Markov models (HMMs) for sequential physiological data analysis and sepsis prediction in preterm infants. We investigate the use of classical Gaussian mixture model based HMM, and a…

Bayesian mixture models are widely applied for unsupervised learning and exploratory data analysis. Markov chain Monte Carlo based on Gibbs sampling and split-merge moves are widely used for inference in these models. However, both methods…

Recommendation systems that automatically generate personalized music playlists for users have attracted tremendous attention in recent years. Nowadays, most music recommendation systems rely on item-based or user-based collaborative…

We consider the problem of inference in discrete probabilistic models, that is, distributions over subsets of a finite ground set. These encompass a range of well-known models in machine learning, such as determinantal point processes and…

This paper studies the robustness of quasi-maximum-likelihood (QML) estimation in hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the regime-switching structure is misspecified. Specifically, we examine the case where the true data-generating process…

De-interleaving of the mixtures of Hidden Markov Processes (HMPs) generally depends on its representation model. Existing representation models consider Markov chain mixtures rather than hidden Markov, resulting in the lack of robustness to…

Motivated by applications in movement ecology, in this paper I propose a new class of integrated continuous-time hidden Markov models in which each observation depends on the underlying state of the process over the whole interval since the…

Mixtures of Hidden Markov Models (MHMMs) are frequently used for clustering of sequential data. An important aspect of MHMMs, as of any clustering approach, is that they can be interpretable, allowing for novel insights to be gained from…

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are powerful tools for modeling sequential data, where the underlying states evolve in a stochastic manner and are only indirectly observable. Traditional HMM approaches are well-established for linear sequences,…

In this paper we consider a reduced-form intensity-based credit risk model with a hidden Markov state process. A filtering method is proposed for extracting the underlying state given the observation processes. The method may be applied to…

In this paper, we propose an algorithm for estimating the parameters of a time-homogeneous hidden Markov model from aggregate observations. This problem arises when only the population level counts of the number of individuals at each time…

The mixed membership stochastic blockmodel (MMSB) is a popular framework for community detection and network generation. It learns a low-rank mixed membership representation for each node across communities by exploiting the underlying…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) offer a robust and efficient framework for analyzing time series data, modelling both the underlying latent state progression over time and the observation process, conditional on the latent state. However, a…