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All climate models project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the 21st century, but most models neglect increasing runoff from the Greenland ice sheet. Greenland meltwater is expected to exacerbate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-30 Oliver Mehling , Katinka Bellomo , Federico Fabiano , Marion Devilliers , Michele Petrini , Susanna Corti , Jost von Hardenberg

Understanding how sea ice melts is critical to climate projections. In the Arctic, melt ponds that develop on the surface of sea ice floes during the late spring and summer largely determine their albedo -- a key parameter in climate…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2017-11-28 Ivan Sudakov , Sergey A. Vakulenko , Kenneth M. Golden

Many regions across the globe broke their surface temperature records in recent years, further sparking concerns about the impending arrival of "tipping points" later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-02-13 Nicole Ma , Jonathan H. Jiang , Kennard Hou , Yun Lin , Trung Vu , Philip E. Rosen , Yu Gu , Kristen A. Fahy

Oxygen isotopes in marine cherts have been used to infer hot oceans during the Archean with temperatures between 60{\deg}C (333 K) and 80{\deg}C (353 K). Such climates are challenging for the early Earth warmed by the faint young Sun. The…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2017-07-26 Benjamin Charnay , Guillaume Le Hir , Frédéric Fluteau , François Forget , David C. Catling

Climate change is the long-term shift in global weather patterns, largely caused by anthropogenic activity of greenhouse gas emissions. Global climate temperatures have unmistakably risen and naturally occurring climate variability alone…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-01-26 Junze Zhang , Kerry Zhang , Mary Zhang , Jonathan H. Jiang , Philip E. Rosen , Kristen A. Fahy

Climate variability over the past million years shows a strong glacial-interglacial cycle of ~100,000 years as a combined result of Milankovitch orbital forcing and climatic resonance. It has been suggested that anthropogenic contributions…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2014-07-24 Jacob Haqq-Misra

The extent to which the ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice affects mid-latitude climate has received great attention and polarised opinions. The basic issue is whether the inter-annual variability in Arctic sea ice is the cause of, or the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-11-26 Giuseppe Zappa , Theodore G. Shepherd , Paulo Ceppi

Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climate…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-01-23 Jingfang Fan , Jun Meng , Yosef Ashkenazy , Shlomo Havlin , Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

The focus of our work is improving the interpretability of anomalies in climate models and advancing our understanding of Arctic melt dynamics. The Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets are experiencing rapid surface melting and increased…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Tolulope Ale , Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel , Vandana P. Janeja

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and polar ice sheets are coupled tipping elements, allowing for potential cascading tipping events in which tipping is facilitated by their mutual interactions. However, while an AMOC…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-02-25 Sacha Sinet , Anna S. von der Heydt , Henk A. Dijkstra

The warming of the Arctic, also known as Arctic amplification, is led by several atmospheric and oceanic drivers. However, the details of its underlying thermodynamic causes are still unknown. Inferring the causal effects of atmospheric…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-09-27 Sahara Ali , Omar Faruque , Yiyi Huang , Md. Osman Gani , Aneesh Subramanian , Nicole-Jienne Shchlegel , Jianwu Wang

The strength of mid-latitude storm tracks shapes weather and climate phenomena in the extra-tropics, as these storm tracks control the daily to multi-decadal variability of precipitation, temperature and winds. By the end of this century,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-06-03 Rei Chemke , Yi Ming , Janni Yuval

The case for a much warmer climate on the early Earth than now is presented. The oxygen isotope record in sedimentary chert and the compelling case for a near constant isotopic oxygen composition of seawater over geologic time support…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2015-04-03 David W. Schwartzman

Carbon dioxide ice clouds are thought to play an important role for cold terrestrial planets with thick CO2 dominated atmospheres. Various previous studies showed that a scattering greenhouse effect by carbon dioxide ice clouds could result…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2016-02-03 Daniel Kitzmann

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate system and considered to be a tipping element. There is still a large uncertainty on the critical global warming level at which the AMOC will start to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-07-30 René M. van Westen , Elian Y. P. Vanderborght , Michael Kliphuis , Henk A. Dijkstra

In this article, we considered the problem of sea ice cover is melting. Considering the `satellite passive microwave remote sensing data' as functional data, we studied daily observation of sea ice cover of each year as a smooth continuous…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-25 Purba Das , Ananya Lahiri , Sourish Das

Orbital forcing plays a key role in pacing the glacial-interglacial cycles. However, the mechanistic linkages between the orbital parameters - eccentricity, obliquity, and precession - and global ice volume remain unclear. Here, we…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-12-05 Liam Wheen , Oscar Benjamin , Thomas Gernon , Cameron Hall , Jerry Wright

This paper investigates the implications of the future continuation of the demonstrated past (1960-2012) strong correlation between first-difference atmospheric CO2 and global surface temperature. It does this, for the period from the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-04-30 L. M. W Leggett , D. A. Ball

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-03-05 James Hansen , Makiko Sato , Gary Russell , Pushker Kharecha

System identification method (SIM) was used to evaluate the Earth equilibrium climate sensitivity. According to our simulations, the equilibrium climate sensitivity was found to be between 2 deg C and 7 deg C. Analysis of the changes in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-16 Alexei V Karnaukhov , Sergei F Lyuksyutov , Artem V Aliakin , Mikhail E Prokhorov , Sergei I Blinnikov