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Nonstationarity of real-life time series requires model adaptation. In classical approaches like ARMA-ARCH there is assumed some arbitrarily chosen dependence type. To avoid their bias, we will focus on novel more agnostic approach: moving…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-09 Jarek Duda

In this paper, we study a method to sample from a target distribution $\pi$ over $\mathbb{R}^d$ having a positive density with respect to the Lebesgue measure, known up to a normalisation factor. This method is based on the Euler…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-20 Alain Durmus , Eric Moulines

We consider non-parametric estimation problems in the presence of dependent data, notably non-parametric regression with random design and non-parametric density estimation. The proposed estimation procedure is based on a dimension…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-02 Nicolas Asin , Jan Johannes

Given a sequence of random (directed and weighted) graphs, we address the problem of online monitoring and detection of changes in the underlying data distribution. Our idea is to endow sequential change-point detection (CPD) techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-03 Bernardo Marenco , Paola Bermolen , Marcelo Fiori , Federico Larroca , Gonzalo Mateos

We study the detection of a sparse change in a high-dimensional mean vector as a minimax testing problem. Our first main contribution is to derive the exact minimax testing rate across all parameter regimes for $n$ independent, $p$-variate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-18 Haoyang Liu , Chao Gao , Richard J. Samworth

Let $G = (V,E)$ be a connected directed graph on $n$ vertices. Assign values from the set $\{1,2,\dots,n\}$ to the vertices of $G$ and update the values according to the following rule: uniformly at random choose a vertex and update its…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-06-05 John Larkin

We study the critical behavior of the $O(n)$ model under steady shear flow using a dynamical renormalization group (RG) method. Incorporating the strong anisotropy in scaling ansatz, which has been neglected in earlier RG analyses, we…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-05-20 Harukuni Ikeda , Hiroyoshi Nakano

A standard approach to computing expectations with respect to a given target measure is to introduce an overdamped Langevin equation which is reversible with respect to the target distribution, and to approximate the expectation by a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-04-20 A. B. Duncan , T. Lelievre , G. A. Pavliotis

Change point estimation in its offline version is traditionally performed by optimizing over the data set of interest, by considering each data point as the true location parameter and computing a data fit criterion. Subsequently, the data…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-10 Zhiyuan Lu , Moulinath Banerjee , George Michailidis

In this paper, we consider the problem of determining the presence of a given signal in a high-dimensional observation with unknown covariance matrix by using an adaptive matched filter. Traditionally such filters are formed from the sample…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-06 Benjamin D. Robinson , Robert Malinas , Alfred O. Hero

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-10 Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel Candès

This paper proposes a new estimation technique for fitting parametric Gibbs point process models to a spatial point pattern dataset. The technique is a counterpart, for spatial point processes, of the variational estimators for Markov…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-07-24 Adrian Baddeley , David Dereudre

The problem of online change point detection is to detect abrupt changes in properties of time series, ideally as soon as possible after those changes occur. Existing work on online change point detection either assumes i.i.d data, focuses…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-01 Lei Xin , George Chiu , Shreyas Sundaram

High-dimensional changepoint inference, adaptable to diverse alternative scenarios, has attracted significant attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive and robust approach to changepoint testing. Specifically, by…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-29 Jixuan Liu , Long Feng , Liuhua Peng , Zhaojun Wang

We propose a new sequential monitoring scheme for changes in the parameters of a multivariate time series. In contrast to procedures proposed in the literature which compare an estimator from the training sample with an estimator calculated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-28 Josua Gösmann , Tobias Kley , Holger Dette

Existing methods for the estimation of stable distribution parameters, such as those based on sample quantiles, sample characteristic functions or maximum likelihood generally assume an independent sample. Little attention has been paid to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-05 Adrian W. Barker

We consider the problem of high-dimensional Gaussian graphical model selection. We identify a set of graphs for which an efficient estimation algorithm exists, and this algorithm is based on thresholding of empirical conditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-03-06 Animashree Anandkumar , Vincent Y. F. Tan , Alan. S. Willsky

Two dynamical indicators, the local dimension and the extremal index, used to quantify persistence in phase space have been developed and applied to different data across various disciplines. These are computed using the asymptotic limit of…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-11-26 Ignacio del Amo , George Datseris , Mark Holland

We study point process convergence for sequences of iid random walks. The objective is to derive asymptotic theory for the extremes of these random walks. We show convergence of the maximum random walk to the Gumbel distribution under the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-10 Johannes Heiny , Thomas Mikosch , Jorge Yslas

Stochastic gradient algorithms are more and more studied since they can deal efficiently and online with large samples in high dimensional spaces. In this paper, we first establish a Central Limit Theorem for these estimates as well as for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-17 Antoine Godichon-Baggioni