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In this paper we study covariance estimation with missing data. We consider missing data mechanisms that can be independent of the data, or have a time varying dependency. Additionally, observed variables may have arbitrary (non uniform)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-17 Eduardo Pavez , Antonio Ortega

Covariate adjustment is a commonly used method for total causal effect estimation. In recent years, graphical criteria have been developed to identify all valid adjustment sets, that is, all covariate sets that can be used for this purpose.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-11 Leonard Henckel , Emilija Perković , Marloes H. Maathuis

Estimating causal effects under networked interference from observational data is a crucial yet challenging problem. Most existing methods mainly rely on the networked unconfoundedness assumption, which guarantees the identification of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Jie Qiao , Yuguang Yan , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

One of the major challenges in estimating conditional potential outcomes and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is the presence of hidden confounders. Since testing for hidden confounders cannot be accomplished only with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Ahmed Aloui , Juncheng Dong , Ali Hasan , Vahid Tarokh

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data with unobserved confounders. The CATE function maps baseline covariates to individual causal effect predictions and is key for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-09 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Angela Zhou

Current methods for covariate-shift adaptation use unlabelled data to compute importance weights or domain-invariant features, while the final model is trained on labelled data only. Here, we consider a particular case of covariate shift…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-28 Julius von Kügelgen , Alexander Mey , Marco Loog

A major limitation of machine learning (ML) prediction models is that they recover associational, rather than causal, predictive relationships between variables. In high-stakes automation applications of ML this is problematic, as the model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Jianqiao Mao , Max A. Little

How do we learn from biased data? Historical datasets often reflect historical prejudices; sensitive or protected attributes may affect the observed treatments and outcomes. Classification algorithms tasked with predicting outcomes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-04 David Madras , Elliot Creager , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

In conventional randomized controlled trials, adjustment for baseline values of covariates known to be at least moderately associated with the outcome increases the power of the trial. Recent work has shown particular benefit for more…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-27 James Willard , Shirin Golchi , Erica EM Moodie

Estimating the causal effect of a treatment or health policy with observational data can be challenging due to an imbalance of and a lack of overlap between treated and control covariate distributions. In the presence of limited overlap,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-24 Martha Barnard , Jared D. Huling , Julian Wolfson

Conventional methods in causal effect inferencetypically rely on specifying a valid set of control variables. When this set is unknown or misspecified, inferences will be erroneous. We propose a method for inferring average causal effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-14 Ludvig Hult , Dave Zachariah

We propose to meta-learn causal structures based on how fast a learner adapts to new distributions arising from sparse distributional changes, e.g. due to interventions, actions of agents and other sources of non-stationarities. We show…

To estimate casual treatment effects, we propose a new matching approach based on the reduced covariates obtained from sufficient dimension reduction. Compared to the original covariates and the propensity score, which are commonly used for…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-03 Wei Luo , Yeying Zhu

Unmeasured confounding can severely bias causal effect estimates from spatiotemporal observational data, especially when the confounders do not vary smoothly in time and space. In this work, we develop a method for addressing unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Jiaxi Wu , Alexander Franks

Experimental and observational studies often lead to spurious association between the outcome and independent variables describing the intervention, because of confounding to third-party factors. Even in randomized clinical trials,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-04 Orestis Loukas , Ho Ryun Chung

Data from observational studies (OSs) is widely available and readily obtainable yet frequently contains confounding biases. On the other hand, data derived from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) helps to reduce these biases; however, it…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-30 Dong Yao , Caizhi Tang , Qing Cui , Longfei Li

Observational studies are needed when experiments are not possible. Within study comparisons (WSC) compare observational and experimental estimates that test the same hypothesis using the same treatment group, outcome, and estimand.…

Causal inference from observational data often assumes "ignorability," that all confounders are observed. This assumption is standard yet untestable. However, many scientific studies involve multiple causes, different variables whose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-16 Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

A major challenge in estimating treatment effects in observational studies is the reliance on untestable conditions such as the assumption of no unmeasured confounding. In this work, we propose an algorithm that can falsify the assumption…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-03 Rickard K. A. Karlsson , Jesse H. Krijthe

We consider the problem of combining data from observational and experimental sources to make causal conclusions. This problem is increasingly relevant, as the modern era has yielded passive collection of massive observational datasets in…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-19 Evan Rosenman , Guillaume Basse , Art Owen , Michael Baiocchi
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