Related papers: Enhancing Covid-19 Decision-Making by Creating an …
Continued model-based decision support is associated with particular challenges, especially in long-term projects. Due to the regularly changing questions and the often changing understanding of the underlying system, the models used must…
Modern Bayesian approaches and workflows emphasize in how simulation is important in the context of model developing. Simulation can help researchers understand how the model behaves in a controlled setting and can be used to stress the…
Arguments about the safety, security, and correctness of a complex system are often made in the form of an assurance case. An assurance case is a structured argument, often represented with a graphical interface, that presents and supports…
Sensor-driven systems are increasingly ubiquitous: they provide both data and information that can facilitate real-time decision-making and autonomous actuation, as well as enabling informed policy choices by service providers and…
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of in-silico epidemiological modelling in predicting the dynamics of infectious diseases to inform health policy and decision makers about suitable prevention and containment strategies.…
Safety cases become increasingly important for software certification. Models play a crucial role in building and combining information for the safety case. This position paper sketches an ideal model-based safety case with defect…
Assurance cases provide an organized and explicit argument for correctness. They can dramatically improve the certification of Scientific Computing Software (SCS). Assurance cases have already been effectively used for safety cases for real…
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a surge in computational models to simulate disease dynamics and guide interventions. Agent-based models (ABMs) are well-suited to capture population and environmental heterogeneity, but their rapid deployment…
Scientific knowledge and advances are a cornerstone of modern society. They improve our understanding of the world we live in and help us navigate global challenges including emerging infectious diseases, climate change and the biodiversity…
Justifying the correct implementation of the non-functional requirements (e.g., safety, security) of mission-critical systems is crucial to prevent system failure. The later could have severe consequences such as the death of people and…
This paper introduces a new basic risk model that could also be utilized by Covid-19 warning apps a priori, before an action is performed. Today the common warning apps estimate risk a posteriori and give no advice on particular scenarios.…
The COronaVIrus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that has had the world in its grip from the beginning of 2020, has resulted in an unprecedented level of public interest and media attention on the field of mathematical epidemiology. Ever…
The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…
Building a safety case is a common approach to make expert judgement explicit about safety of a system. The issue of confidence in such argumentation is still an open research field. Providing quantitative estimation of confidence is an…
Multi-model prediction efforts in infectious disease modeling and climate modeling involve multiple teams independently producing projections under various scenarios. Often these scenarios are produced by the presence and absence of a…
When designing systems that are complex, dynamic and stochastic in nature, simulation is generally recognised as one of the best design support technologies, and a valuable aid in the strategic and tactical decision making process. A…
During the COVID-19 crisis there have been many difficult decisions governments and other decision makers had to make. E.g. do we go for a total lock down or keep schools open? How many people and which people should be tested? Although…
In cancer research there is much interest in building and validating outcome predicting outcomes to support treatment decisions. However, because most outcome prediction models are developed and validated without regard to the causal…
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove a widespread, often uncoordinated effort by research groups to develop mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 to study its spread and inform control efforts. The urgent demand for insight at the outset of…
Assurance cases are used to communicate and assess confidence in critical system properties such as safety and security. Historically, assurance cases have been manually created documents, which are evaluated by system stakeholders through…