Related papers: Epidemiological dynamics with clinically-derived i…
We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…
We develop a mathematical framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic model of wealth exchange. The multi-agent description leads to study the evolution over time of a…
We analyze a recently proposed temporal centrality measure applied to an empirical network based on person-to-person contacts in an emergency department of a busy urban hospital. We show that temporal centrality identifies a distinct set of…
The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…
can evolve simultaneously. For the information-driven adaptive process, susceptible (infected) individuals who have abilities to recognize the disease would break the links of their infected (susceptible) neighbors to prevent the epidemic…
Epidemiological contact network models have emerged as an important tool in understanding and predicting the spread of infectious disease, due to their capacity to engage individual heterogeneity that may underlie essential dynamics of a…
In this brief, we study epidemic spreading dynamics taking place in complex networks. We specifically investigate the effect of synergy, where multiple interactions between nodes result in a combined effect larger than the simple sum of…
A reasonable prediction of infectious diseases transmission process under different disease control strategies is an important reference point for policy makers. Here we established a dynamic transmission model via Python and realized…
The emergence of an epidemic evokes the need to monitor its spread and assess and validate any mitigation measures enacted by governments and administrative bodies in real time. We present here a method to observe and quantify this spread…
Traditional disease transmission models assume that the infectious period is exponentially distributed with a recovery rate fixed in time and across individuals. This assumption provides analytical and computational advantages, however it…
We introduce a methodology to guarantee safety against the spread of infectious diseases by viewing epidemiological models as control systems and by considering human interventions (such as quarantining or social distancing) as control…
Understanding the spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 is crucial for informed decision-making and resource allocation. A critical component of disease behavior is the velocity with which disease spreads, defined as the rate of…
Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to…
Over the past two decades there has been a number of global outbreaks of viral diseases. This has accelerated the efforts to model and forecast the disease spreading, in order to find ways to confine the spreading regionally and between…
This paper analyses the dynamics of infectious disease with a concurrent spread of disease awareness. The model includes local awareness due to contacts with aware individuals, as well as global awareness due to reported cases of infection…
The spread of infectious diseases is often influenced by human mobility across different geographical regions. Although numerous studies have investigated how diseases like SARS and COVID-19 spread from China to various global locations,…
We study numerically the variability of the outbreak of diseases on complex networks. We use a SI model to simulate the disease spreading at short times, in homogeneous and in scale-free networks. In both cases, we study the effect of…
The dynamics of infection spread in populations has received popular attention since the outbreak of Covid-19 and many statistical models have been developed. One of the interesting areas of research is short-time dynamics in confined,…
Records of social interactions provide us with new sources of data for understanding how interaction patterns affect collective dynamics. Such human activity patterns are often bursty, i.e., they consist of short periods of intense activity…
Understanding the interplay between human behavioral phenomena and infectious disease dynamics has been one of the central challenges of mathematical epidemiology. However, socio-cognitive processes critical for the initiation of desired…