Related papers: Controlling epidemic diseases based only on social…
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered coronavirus. It is similar to influenza viruses and raises concerns through alarming levels of spread and severity resulting in an ongoing pandemic…
We identify the effectiveness of social distancing policies in reducing the transmission of the COVID-19 spread. We build a model that measures the relative frequency and geographic distribution of the virus growth rate and provides…
Social distancing as one of the main non-pharmaceutical interventions can help slow down the spread of diseases, like in the COVID-19 pandemic. Effective social distancing, unless enforced as drastic lockdowns and mandatory cordon…
An urgent problem in controlling COVID-19 spreading is to understand the role of undocumented infection. We develop a five-state model for COVID-19, taking into account the unique features of the novel coronavirus, with key parameters…
The COVID-19 pandemic left its unique mark on the 21st century as one of the most significant disasters in history, triggering governments all over the world to respond with a wide range of interventions. However, these restrictions come…
This paper is based on the observation that, during Covid-19 epidemic, the choice of which individuals should be tested has an important impact on the effectiveness of selective confinement measures. This decision problem is closely related…
By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by…
The ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019-2020 (COVID-19) is caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This pathogenic virus is able to spread asymptotically during its incubation stage through a…
The outbreak of COVID-19 highlights the need for a more harmonized, less privacy-concerning, easily accessible approach to monitoring the human mobility that has been proved to be associated with the viral transmission. In this study, we…
The new coronavirus outbreak has been officially declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization. To grapple with the rapid spread of this ongoing pandemic, most countries have banned indoor and outdoor gatherings and ordered…
A simple analytical model for modeling the evolution of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic is presented. The model is based on the numerical solution of the widely used Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) populations model for describing…
The novel coronavirus and its deadly outbreak have posed grand challenges to human society: as of March 26, 2020, there have been 85,377 confirmed cases and 1,293 reported deaths in the United States; and the World Health Organization (WHO)…
The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…
In the context of epidemiology, policies for disease control are often devised through a mixture of intuition and brute-force, whereby the set of logically conceivable policies is narrowed down to a small family described by a few…
Over a year after the start of the COVID-19 epidemics, we are still facing the virus and it is hard to correctly predict its future spread over weeks to come, as well as the impacts of potential political interventions. Current epidemic…
This paper introduces a new optimal control model to describe and control the dynamics of infectious diseases. In the present model, the average time of isolation (i.e. hospitalization) of infectious population is the main time-dependent…
The rapid spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) confronts policy makers with the problem of measuring the effectiveness of containment strategies, balancing public health considerations with the economic costs of social distancing measures.…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
The results of an alternative methodology for making predictions about the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece are presented. Instead of focusing on the various population profiles (subjected to instabilities introduced by the fitting process),…
Strong social distancing restrictions have been crucial to controlling the COVID-19 outbreak thus far, and the next question is when and how to relax these restrictions. A sequential timing of relaxing restrictions across groups is explored…