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We consider the problem of optimal trading for a power producer in the context of intraday electricity markets. The aim is to minimize the imbalance cost induced by the random residual demand in electricity, i.e. the consumption from the…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2018-11-27 René Aïd , Pierre Gruet , Huyên Pham

Electricity is difficult to store, except at prohibitive cost, and therefore the balance between generation and load must be maintained at all times. Electricity is traditionally managed by anticipating demand and intermittent production…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-26 Julie Keisler , Margaux Bregere

This paper proposes an agent-based model that combines both spot and balancing electricity markets. From this model, we develop a multi-agent simulation to study the integration of the consumers' flexibility into the system. Our study…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-02-13 Florian Kühnlenz , Pedro H. J. Nardelli , Santtu Karhinen , Rauli Svento

Recent studies provide evidence that decomposing the electricity price into the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) and the remaining part, predicting both separately, and then combining their forecasts can bring significant accuracy gains…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-05 Katarzyna Chęć , Bartosz Uniejewski , Rafał Weron

Short-Term Electricity-Load Forecasting (STELF) refers to the prediction of the immediate demand (in the next few hours to several days) for the power system. Various external factors, such as weather changes and the emergence of new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Qi Dong , Rubing Huang , Chenhui Cui , Dave Towey , Ling Zhou , Jinyu Tian , Jianzhou Wang

Renewable sources of energy are the future due to the environmental problems caused by non-renewable sources to produce energy. The biggest issue with renewable energy sources is that the power produced by devices such as PV solar panels…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-24 Rohaib Bhatti , Ali John Naqvi , Abdullah Tauqeer

In the e-commerce space, accurate prediction of delivery dates plays a major role in customer experience as well as in optimizing the supply chain operations. Predicting a date later than the actual delivery date might sometimes result in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-04 Preethi V , Nachiappan Sundaram , Ravindra Babu Tallamraju

During the last years, European intraday power markets have gained importance for balancing forecast errors due to the rising volumes of intermittent renewable generation. However, compared to day-ahead markets, the drivers for the intraday…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-10-06 Simon Hirsch , Florian Ziel

Traditional electric energy markets do not explicitly model generator contingencies. To improve the representation of resources and to enhance the modeling of uncertainty, existing markets are moving in the direction of including generator…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-10-08 N. G. Singhal , J. Kwon , K. W. Hedman

Electricity price forecasts are typically evaluated using accuracy measures such as RMSE and MAE, although these metrics often fail to reflect their economic value in operational decisions. This paper investigates which statistical…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-01 Katarzyna Maciejowska , Arkadiusz Lipiecki , Bartosz Uniejewski

Reliability Options are capacity remuneration mechanisms aimed at enhancing security of supply in electricity systems. They can be framed as call options on electricity sold by power producers to System Operators. This paper provides a…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2019-09-13 Luisa Andreis , Maria Flora , Fulvio Fontini , Tiziano Vargiolu

It is a common practice in the current literature of electricity markets to use game-theoretic approaches for strategic price bidding. However, they generally rely on the assumption that the strategic bidders have prior knowledge of rival…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-04-05 Arega Getaneh Abate , Dorsa Majdi , Jalal Kazempour , Maryam Kamgarpour

Accurate prediction of wind power is essential for the grid integration of this intermittent renewable source and aiding grid planners in forecasting available wind capacity. Spatial differences lead to discrepancies in climatological data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Md Saiful Islam Sajol , Md Shazid Islam , A S M Jahid Hasan , Md Saydur Rahman , Jubair Yusuf

Electricity price is a key factor affecting the decision-making for all market participants. Accurate forecasting of electricity prices is very important and is also very challenging since electricity price is highly volatile due to various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-28 Vasudharini Sridharan , Mingjian Tuo , Xingpeng Li

In a day-ahead market, energy buyers and sellers submit their bids for a particular future time, including the amount of energy they wish to buy or sell and the price they are prepared to pay or receive. However, the dynamic for forming the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-11-26 Luca Di Persio , Matteo Garbelli , Luca M. Giordano

The impact of trades on asset prices is a crucial aspect of market dynamics for academics, regulators and practitioners alike. Recently, universal and highly nonlinear master curves were observed for price impacts aggregated on all…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2018-01-17 Felix Patzelt , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is crucial for effective decision-making in power trading on the spot market. While recent advances in generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and pre-trained large language models (LLMs) have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Timothée Hornek Amir Sartipi , Igor Tchappi , Gilbert Fridgen

The prediction of electrical power in combined cycle power plants is a key challenge in the electrical power and energy systems field. This power output can vary depending on environmental variables, such as temperature, pressure, and…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-08-06 Jesus L. Lobo , Igor Ballesteros , Izaskun Oregi , Javier Del Ser

Nowadays, with the unprecedented penetration of renewable distributed energy resources (DERs), the necessity of an efficient energy forecasting model is more demanding than before. Generally, forecasting models are trained using observed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-18 Hossein Sangrody , Morteza Sarailoo , Ning Zhou , Ahmad Shokrollahi , Elham Foruzan

Day Ahead Electricity Markets (DAMs) in India are thin but growing. Consistent price forecasts are important for their utilization in portfolio optimization models. Univariate or multivariate models with standard exogenous variables such as…

Applications · Statistics 2020-11-04 Sayani Gupta , Puneet Chitkara