Related papers: Tracking and tracing in the UK: a dynamic causal m…
Recent re-opening policies in the US, following a period of social distancing measures, introduced a significant increase in daily COVID-19 infections, calling for a roll-back or substantial revisiting of these policies in many states. The…
This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic…
Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…
We study an SEIQR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered) model for an infectious disease, with time delays for latency and an asymptomatic phase. For fast pandemics where nobody has prior immunity and everyone has immunity…
The global COVID-19 pandemic (SARS-CoV-2 virus) is the defining health crisis of our century. Due to the absence of vaccines and drugs that can help to fight it, the world solution to control the spread has been to consider public social…
We outline a contact-tracing strategy based on proximity sensing using mobile devices. We discuss what an ideal system should look like and what it can do. We show that, when adopted sufficiently broadly, such a contact-tracing strategy can…
State government-mandated social distancing measures have helped to slow down the growth of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Current predictive models of the development of COVID-19, especially after mitigation efforts, are…
We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures affect both supply…
The estimate of the remaining time of an ongoing wave of epidemic spreading is a critical issue. Due to the variations of a wide range of parameters in an epidemic, for simple models such as Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, it is…
Epidemic spreading can be suppressed by the introduction of containment measures such as social distancing and lock downs. Yet, when such measures are relaxed, new epidemic waves and infection cycles may occur. Here we explore this issue in…
Residential aged-care facilities (RACFs, also called long-term care facilities, aged care homes, or nursing homes) have elevated risks of respiratory infection outbreaks and associated disease burden. During the COVID-19 pandemic, social…
Spectral analysis characterises oscillatory time series behaviours such as cycles, but accurate estimation requires reasonable numbers of observations. Current COVID-19 time series for many countries are short: pre- and post-lockdown series…
The COVID-19 pandemic has posed significant challenges in modeling its complex epidemic transmissions, infection and contagion, which are very different from known epidemics. The challenges in quantifying COVID-19 complexities include…
The COVID-19 pandemic provided many modeling challenges to investigate the evolution of an epidemic process over areal units. A suitable encompassing model must describe the spatio-temporal variations of the disease infection rate of…
This paper is an exploratory study of two epidemiological questions on a worldwide basis. How fast is the disease spreading? Are the restrictions (especially mobility restrictions) for people bring the expected effect? To answer the first…
Leading up to August 2020, COVID-19 has spread to almost every country in the world, causing millions of infected and hundreds of thousands of deaths. In this paper, we first verify the assumption that clinical variables could have…
Epidemiological models with constant parameters may not capture satisfactory infection patterns in the presence of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures during a pandemic, since infectiousness is a function of time. In…
In limiting the rapid spread of highly infectious diseases like Covid-19 means to immediately identify individuals who had been in contact with a newly diagnosed infected person have proven to be important. Such potential victims can go…
How to model the 2019 CoronaVirus (2019-nCov) spread in China is one of the most urgent and interesting problems in applied mathematics. In this paper, we propose a novel time delay dynamic system with external source to describe the trend…
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a great threat to public health and the economy worldwide. Currently, COVID-19 evolves in many countries to a second stage, characterized by the need for the liberation of the economy and relaxation…