Related papers: Nonasymptotic Laplace approximation under model mi…
Uncovering genuine relationships between a response variable of interest and a large collection of covariates is a fundamental and practically important problem. In the context of Gaussian linear models, both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a widely used inference method in Bayesian statistics to bypass the point-wise computation of the likelihood. In this paper we develop theoretical bounds for the distance between the statistics used…
If the log likelihood is approximately quadratic with constant Hessian, then the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is approximately normally distributed. No other assumptions are required. We do not need independent and identically…
The marginal likelihood is a well established model selection criterion in Bayesian statistics. It also allows to efficiently calculate the marginal posterior model probabilities that can be used for Bayesian model averaging of quantities…
Bayesian neural networks often approximate the weight-posterior with a Gaussian distribution. However, practical posteriors are often, even locally, highly non-Gaussian, and empirical performance deteriorates. We propose a simple parametric…
We consider the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions if the model is misspecified. Given a prior distribution and a random sample from a distribution $P_0$, which may not be in the support of the prior, we show that the posterior…
Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…
Some statistical models are specified via a data generating process for which the likelihood function cannot be computed in closed form. Standard likelihood-based inference is then not feasible but the model parameters can be inferred by…
We provide non-asymptotic bounds for first and higher order inclusion probabilities of the rejective sampling model with various size parameters. Further we derive bounds in the semi-definite ordering for matrices that collect (conditional)…
We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…
We present expressions for the coefficients which arise in asymptotic expansions of multiple integrals of Laplace type (the first term of which is known as Laplace's approximation) in terms of asymptotic series of the functions in the…
This paper develops an asymptotic likelihood theory for triangular arrays of stationary Gaussian time series depending on a multidimensional unknown parameter. We give sufficient conditions for the associated sequence of statistical models…
Sample size criteria are often expressed in terms of the concentration of the posterior density, as controlled by some sort of error bound. Since this is done pre-experimentally, one can regard the posterior density as a function of the…
In Bayesian inference, making deductions about a parameter of interest requires one to sample from or compute an integral against a posterior distribution. A popular method to make these computations cheaper in high-dimensional settings is…
We prove that the classical Laplace asymptotic expansion (AE) of $\int_{\mathbb R^d} g(x)e^{-nu(x)}dx$, $n\gg1$ extends to the high-dimensional regime in which $d$ may grow large with $n$. More specifically, we use new techniques suitable…
We study the asymptotic behavior of the least squares estimators of the unknown parameters of bifurcating autoregressive processes. Under very weak assumptions on the driven noise of the process, namely conditional pair-wise independence…
We consider the asymptotic behaviour of the marginal maximum likelihood empirical Bayes posterior distribution in general setting. First we characterize the set where the maximum marginal likelihood estimator is located with high…
Power posteriors "robustify" standard Bayesian inference by raising the likelihood to a constant fractional power, effectively downweighting its influence in the calculation of the posterior. Power posteriors have been shown to be more…
We derive posterior contraction rates (PCRs) and finite-sample Bernstein von Mises (BvM) results for non-parametric Bayesian models by extending the diffusion-based framework of Mou et al. (2024) to the infinite-dimensional setting. The…
The Laplace approximation has been one of the workhorses of Bayesian inference. It often delivers good approximations in practice despite the fact that it does not strictly take into account where the volume of posterior density lies.…