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The reliability of the mercury spallation target is mission-critical for the neutron science program of the spallation neutron source at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We present an inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) study using…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2022-07-07 Majdi I. Radaideh , Lianshan Lin , Hao Jiang , Sarah Cousineau

Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS)-based transition modeling is widely used in aerospace applications but suffers inaccuracies due to the Boussinesq turbulent viscosity hypothesis. The eigenspace perturbation method can estimate the…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-11-08 Minghan Chu , Weicheng Qian

We propose UNSURF, a novel uncertainty measure for cortical surface reconstruction of clinical brain MRI scans of any orientation, resolution, and contrast. It relies on the discrepancy between predicted voxel-wise signed distance functions…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-08 Raghav Mehta , Karthik Gopinath , Ben Glocker , Juan Eugenio Iglesias

Deterministic uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning aims to estimate uncertainty with a single pass through a network by leveraging outputs from the network's feature extractor. Existing methods require that the feature extractor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-10 Felix Jimenez , Matthias Katzfuss

The practice of uncertainty quantification (UQ) validation, notably in machine learning for the physico-chemical sciences, rests on several graphical methods (scattering plots, calibration curves, reliability diagrams and confidence curves)…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-03-31 Pascal Pernot

We present a "module-based hybrid" Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) framework for general nonlinear multi-physics simulation. The proposed methodology, introduced in [\hyperlink{ref1}{1}], supports the independent development of each…

Computational Physics · Physics 2014-10-21 Akshay Mittal , Xiao Chen , Charles Tong , Gianluca Iaccarino

Parametric uncertainty in nonlinear dynamical systems can fundamentally alter bifurcation behaviour, leading to qualitative response changes. Predicting operating margins/envelopes under such uncertainties is critical but challenging:…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-03-27 Dongxiao Hong , David A. W. Barton , Simon A. Neild

This paper explores uncertainty quantification (UQ) as an indicator of the trustworthiness of automated deep-learning (DL) tools in the context of white matter lesion (WML) segmentation from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of…

This work suggests several methods of uncertainty treatment in multiscale modelling and describes their application to a system of coupled turbulent transport simulations of a tokamak plasma. We propose a method to quantify the usually…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2023-07-10 Yehor Yudin , David Coster , Udo von Toussaint , Frank Jenko

In recent years, with the development of the marine industry, navigation environment becomes more complicated. Some artificial intelligence technologies, such as computer vision, can recognize, track and count the sailing ships to ensure…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-02-27 Xu Kang , Bin Song , Jie Guo , Xiaojiang Du , Mohsen Guizani

In the context of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of particle transport Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) addresses the issue of predicting non statistical errors affecting the physical results, i.e. errors deriving mainly from uncertainties in…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-06-18 Paolo Saracco , Maria Grazia Pia

This paper develops a robust control synthesis method for uncertain linear systems with input saturation in the framework of integral quadratic constraints (IQCs). The system is reformulated as a linear fractional representation (LFR) that…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-12 Xu Zhang , Fen Wu

We consider a multiphysics system with multiple component models coupled together through network coupling interfaces, i.e., a handful of scalars. If each component model contains uncertainties represented by a set of parameters, a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-07-28 Paul G. Constantine , Eric T. Phipps , Timothy M. Wildey

In inverse problems, distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) aims to obtain error bars with coverage guarantees that are independent of any prior assumptions about the data distribution. In the context of mass mapping,…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-02-26 Hubert Leterme , Jalal Fadili , Jean-Luc Starck

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial for deploying reliable Deep Learning (DL) models in high-stakes applications. Recently, General Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Systems (GT2-FLSs) have been proven to be effective for UQ, offering Prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-10 Yusuf Guven , Tufan Kumbasar

A marine vessel is a nonlinear system subject to irregular disturbances such as wind and waves, which cause tracking errors between the nominal and actual trajectories. In this study, a nonlinear vessel maneuvering model that includes a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-31 Too Matsuo , Yuki Nishimura , Kenta Hoshino , Daisuke Tabuchi

In probability theory, the partition function is a factor used to reduce any probability function to a density function with total probability of one. Among other statistical models used to represent joint distribution, Markov random fields…

Emerging Technologies · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Timothe Presles , Cyrille Enderli , Gilles Burel , El Houssain Baghious

Security-Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) is one of the most significant problems in secure and optimal operation of modern electricity markets. New sources of uncertainties such as wind speed volatility and price-sensitive loads impose…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-01-25 Mahdi Mehrtash , Mahdi Raoofat , Mohammad Mohammadi , Mohammad Hossein Zakernejad

In this paper, we investigate noncoherent multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) ultra-wideband (UWB) systems where the signal is encoded by differential space-time block code (DSTBC). DSTBC enables noncoherent MIMO UWB systems to achieve…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2013-06-06 Taotao Wang , Tiejun Lv , Hui Gao , Yueming Lu

In the critical task of making generative models trustworthy and robust, methods for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) have begun to show encouraging potential. However, many of these methods rely on rigid heuristics that fail to generalize…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Souradeep Chattopadhyay , Brendan Kennedy , Sai Munikoti , Soumik Sarkar , Karl Pazdernik