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Existing approaches to model uncertainty typically either compare models using a quantitative model selection criterion or evaluate posterior model probabilities having set a prior. In this paper, we propose an alternative strategy which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-26 Vik Shirvaikar , Stephen G. Walker , Chris Holmes

We study the problem of finding fake online news. This is an important problem as news of questionable credibility have recently been proliferating in social media at an alarming scale. As this is an understudied problem, especially for…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-11-20 Momchil Hardalov , Ivan Koychev , Preslav Nakov

Uncertainty is a key feature of any machine learning model and is particularly important in neural networks, which tend to be overconfident. This overconfidence is worrying under distribution shifts, where the model performance silently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-18 Arthur Thuy , Dries F. Benoit

Reliable uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks is very crucial in safety-critical applications such as automated driving for trustworthy and informed decision-making. Assessing the quality of uncertainty estimates is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-12 Neslihan Kose , Ranganath Krishnan , Akash Dhamasia , Omesh Tickoo , Michael Paulitsch

Rumors spread dramatically fast through online social media services, and people are exploring methods to detect rumors automatically. Existing methods typically learn semantic representations of all reposts to a rumor candidate for…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-11-13 Changhe Song , Cunchao Tu , Cheng Yang , Zhiyuan Liu , Maosong Sun

Rumours have existed for a long time and have been known for serious consequences. The rapid growth of social media platforms has multiplied the negative impact of rumours; it thus becomes important to early detect them. Many methods have…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-05-09 Tien Huu Do , Xiao Luo , Duc Minh Nguyen , Nikos Deligiannis

In statistical inference, it is rarely realistic that the hypothesized statistical model is well-specified, and consequently it is important to understand the effects of misspecification on inferential procedures. When the hypothesized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-01 Beomjo Park , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry Wasserman

This paper addresses a significant gap in explainable AI: the necessity of interpreting epistemic uncertainty in model explanations. Although current methods mainly focus on explaining predictions, with some including uncertainty, they fail…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Helena Löfström , Tuwe Löfström , Johan Hallberg Szabadvary

In this paper, we show that counterfactual explanations of confidence scores help users better understand and better trust an AI model's prediction in human-subject studies. Showing confidence scores in human-agent interaction systems can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-08 Thao Le , Tim Miller , Ronal Singh , Liz Sonenberg

In the report the approach to estimation of quality of planned experiments is considered. This approach is based on the analysis of uncertainty, which will take place under the future hypotheses testing about the existence of a new…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-10 S. I. Bityukov , N. V. Krasnikov

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to generating fluent but incorrect content, known as confabulation, which poses increasing risks in multi-turn or agentic applications where outputs may be reused as context. In this work, we…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Tianyi Zhou , Johanne Medina , Sanjay Chawla

In recent years people have become increasingly reliant on social media to read news and get information, and some social media users post unsubstantiated information to gain attention. Such information is known as rumours. Nowadays, rumour…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Yaohou Fan

We investigate the problem of determining the predictive confidence (or, conversely, uncertainty) of a neural classifier through the lens of low-resource languages. By training models on sub-sampled datasets in three different languages, we…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-28 Dennis Ulmer , Jes Frellsen , Christian Hardmeier

Uncertainty estimation bears the potential to make deep learning (DL) systems more reliable. Standard techniques for uncertainty estimation, however, come along with specific combinations of strengths and weaknesses, e.g., with respect to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-02 Joachim Sicking , Maram Akila , Jan David Schneider , Fabian Hüger , Peter Schlicht , Tim Wirtz , Stefan Wrobel

The proliferation of information disseminated by public/social media has made decision-making highly challenging due to the wide availability of noisy, uncertain, or unverified information. Although the issue of uncertainty in information…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-07-18 Jin-Hee Cho , Sibel Adalı

We consider the goal of predicting how complex networks respond to chronic (press) perturbations when characterizations of their network topology and interaction strengths are associated with uncertainty. Our primary result is the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-10-26 David Koslicki , Mark Novak

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the $\textit{uncertainty}$ of model outputs has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-01 David S. Watson , Joshua O'Hara , Niek Tax , Richard Mudd , Ido Guy

Artificial neural networks will always make a prediction, even when completely uncertain and regardless of the consequences. This obliviousness of uncertainty is a major obstacle towards their adoption in practice. Techniques exist,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-13 Hans Weytjens , Jochen De Weerdt

In many high-risk machine learning applications it is essential for a model to indicate when it is uncertain about a prediction. While large language models (LLMs) can reach and even surpass human-level accuracy on a variety of benchmarks,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Evan Becker , Stefano Soatto

Recommending the best course of action for an individual is a major application of individual-level causal effect estimation. This application is often needed in safety-critical domains such as healthcare, where estimating and communicating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-26 Andrew Jesson , Sören Mindermann , Uri Shalit , Yarin Gal