Related papers: Simulation-Based Inference for Global Health Decis…

Traditionally, the identification of parameters in the formulation and solution of inverse problems considers that models, variables and mathematical parameters are free of uncertainties. This aspect simplifies the estimation process, but…

As global living standards improve and medical technology advances, many infectious diseases have been effectively controlled. However, certain diseases, such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, continue to pose significant threats to public…

The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modeling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a…

Epidemiology simulations have become a fundamental tool in the fight against the epidemics of various infectious diseases like AIDS and malaria. However, the complicated and stochastic nature of these simulators can mean their output is…

We introduce a new method for inference in stochastic epidemic models which uses recursive multinomial approximations to integrate over unobserved variables and thus circumvent likelihood intractability. The method is applicable to a class…

Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…

The challenges posed by epidemics and pandemics are immense, especially if the causes are novel. This article introduces a versatile open-source simulation framework designed to model intricate dynamics of infectious diseases across diverse…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms represent a suite of robust computational methodologies utilized for state estimation and parameter inference within dynamical systems, particularly in real-time or online environments where data…

Controlling infectious diseases is a major health priority because they can spread and infect humans, thus evolving into epidemics or pandemics. Therefore, early detection of infectious diseases is a significant need, and many researchers…

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has promoted vigorous scientific activity in an effort to understand, advice and control the pandemic. Data is now freely available at a staggering rate worldwide. Unfortunately, this unprecedented level of…

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove a widespread, often uncoordinated effort by research groups to develop mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 to study its spread and inform control efforts. The urgent demand for insight at the outset of…

The outbreaks of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have impacted the world significantly. Modeling the trend of infection and real-time forecasting of cases can help decision making and control of the disease spread. However, data-driven…

Since the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic in 2020, the global community has faced ongoing challenges in controlling and mitigating the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, as well as its evolving subvariants and…

Estimates from infectious disease models have constituted a significant part of the scientific evidence used to inform the response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. These estimates can vary strikingly in their bias and variability.…

The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic affecting over 200 countries and regions. Inference about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 can provide important insights into the speed of disease spread and…

Most COVID-19 predictive modeling efforts use statistical or mathematical models to predict national- and state-level COVID-19 cases or deaths in the future. These approaches assume parameters such as reproduction time, test positivity…

Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases or regional positivity rates. Although observing their changes over time is critical…

During 2020, the infection rate of COVID-19 has been investigated by many scholars from different research fields. In this context, reliable and interpretable forecasts of disease incidents are a vital tool for policymakers to manage…

The COVID-19 pandemic is considered as the most alarming global health calamity of this century. COVID-19 has been confirmed to be mutated from coronavirus family. As stated by the records of The World Health Organization (WHO at April 18…

COVID-19 was first discovered in December 2019 and has continued to rapidly spread across countries worldwide infecting thousands and millions of people. The virus is deadly, and people who are suffering from prior illnesses or are older…