English
Related papers

Related papers: Statistical Considerations on Political Responsivi…

200 papers

Democracies employ elections at various scales to select officials at the corresponding levels of administration. The geographical distribution of political opinion, the policy issues delegated to each level, and the multilevel interactions…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-03 Sihao Huang , Alexander F. Siegenfeld , Andrew Gelman

Pursuit of honest and truthful decision-making is crucial for governance and accountability in democracies. However, people sometimes take different perspectives of what it means to be honest and how to pursue truthfulness. Here we explore…

In the months leading up to political elections in the United States, forecasts are widespread and take on multiple forms, including projections of what party will win the popular vote, state ratings, and predictions of vote margins at the…

We develop a model of issue-specific voting behavior. This model can be used to explore lawmakers' personal voting patterns of voting by issue area, providing an exploratory window into how the language of the law is correlated with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-09-27 Sean M. Gerrish , David M. Blei

We survey the design of elections that are resilient to attempted interference by third parties. For example, suppose votes have been cast in an election between two candidates, and then each vote is randomly changed with a small…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-13 Steven Heilman

Can Large Language Models (LLMs) accurately predict election outcomes? While LLMs have demonstrated impressive performance in various domains, including healthcare, legal analysis, and creative tasks, their ability to forecast elections…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Chenxiao Yu , Zhaotian Weng , Yuangang Li , Zheng Li , Xiyang Hu , Yue Zhao

The study of complex political phenomena such as parties' polarization calls for mathematical models of political systems. In this paper, we aim at modeling the time evolution of a political system whereby various parties selfishly interact…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-13 Nicolas Lanzetti , Joudi Hajar , Florian Dörfler

We analyze the data about casualties in Italy in the period 01/01/2015 to 30/09/2020 released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). The data exhibit a clear sinusoidal behavior, whose fit allows for a robust subtraction…

In national research assessment exercises that take the peer review approach, research organizations are evaluated on the basis of a subset of their scientific production. The dimension of the subset varies from nation to nation but is…

Digital Libraries · Computer Science 2018-11-06 Giovanni Abramo , Ciriaco Andrea D'Angelo , Fulvio Viel

In this article we propose a stylistic analysis of texts written across two different periods, which differ not only temporally, but politically and culturally: communism and democracy in Romania. We aim to analyze the stylistic variation…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-12-03 Liviu P. Dinu , Ana-Sabina Uban

In recent years, the study of various models and questions related to Liquid Democracy has been of growing interest among the community of Computational Social Choice. A concern that has been raised, is that current academic literature…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-07-25 Evangelos Markakis , Georgios Papasotiropoulos

The previous twelve turnout rates of French national elections by municipality show regularities. These regularities do not depend on the national turnout level, nor on the nature of the election. Based on past statistical regularities we…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-05-29 Christian Borghesi

We propose an exactly solvable model for the dynamics of voters in a two-party system. The opinion formation process is modeled on a random network of agents. The dynamical nature of interpersonal relations is also reflected in the model,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-13 I. J. Benczik , S. Z. Benczik , B. Schmittmann , R. K. P. Zia

This paper analyzes some economic and demographic features of Italians living in cities containing a Saint name in their appellation (hagiotoponyms). Demographic data come from the surveys done in the 15th (2011) Italian Census, while the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-08-17 Marcel Ausloos , Roy Cerqueti

We study the statistics of turnout rates and results of the French elections since 1992. We find that the distribution of turnout rates across towns is surprisingly stable over time. The spatial correlation of the turnout rates, or of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-18 Christian Borghesi , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

For a prepared state exact expressions for the time dependent mean fidelity as well as for the mean inverse paricipation ratio are obtained analytically. The distribution function of fidelity in the long time limit and of inverse…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-14 Heiner Kohler , Hans-Juergen Sommers , Sven Aberg , Thomas Guhr

Democratic societies are built around the principle of free and fair elections, that each citizen's vote should count equal. National elections can be regarded as large-scale social experiments, where people are grouped into usually large…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-06-28 Peter Klimek , Yuri Yegorov , Rudolf Hanel , Stefan Thurner

The Roman Empire shaped Western civilization, and many Roman principles are embodied in modern institutions. Although its political institutions proved both resilient and adaptable, allowing it to incorporate diverse populations, the Empire…

Applications · Statistics 2020-08-25 Pedro L. Ramos , Luciano da F. Costa , Francisco Louzada , Francisco A. Rodrigues

Systems of indirect voting based on the principle of qualified majority can be analysed using the methods of game theory. In particular, this applies to the voting system in the Council of the European Union, which was recently a subject of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2007-05-23 Wojciech Slomczynski , Karol Zyczkowski

One of the critical issues in bibliometric research assessments is the time required to achieve maturity in citations. Citation counts can be considered a reliable proxy of the real impact of a work only if they are observed after…

Digital Libraries · Computer Science 2018-11-06 Giovanni Abramo , Tindaro Cicero , Ciriaco Andrea D'Angelo