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The interest in non-Markovian dynamics within the complex systems community has recently blossomed, due to a new wealth of time-resolved data pointing out the bursty dynamics of many natural and human interactions, manifested in an…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-04-25 Antoine Moinet , Michele Starnini , Romualdo Pastor-Satorras

We focus on variational inference in dynamical systems where the discrete time transition function (or evolution rule) is modelled by a Gaussian process. The dominant approach so far has been to use a factorised posterior distribution,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-17 Alessandro Davide Ialongo , Mark van der Wilk , James Hensman , Carl Edward Rasmussen

For a random walk defined for a doubly infinite sequence of times, we let the time parameter itself be an integer-valued process, and call the orginal process a random walk at random time. We find the scaling limit which generalizes the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-07-30 Paul Jung , Greg Markowsky

Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes form a general class of non-diffusion stochastic models that involve both deterministic trajectories and random jumps at random times. In this paper, we state a new characterization of the jump rate…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-03 Romain Azaïs , Alexandre Genadot

We study normal diffusive and subdiffusive processes in a harmonic potential (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process) on a uniformly growing/contracting domain. Our starting point is a recently derived fractional Fokker-Planck equation, which covers…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-07-31 F. Le Vot , S. B. Yuste , E. Abad

We consider a stochastic individual based model where each predator searches during a random time and then manipulates its prey or rests. The time distributions may be non-exponential. An age structure allows to describe these interactions…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-03-31 Vincent Bansaye , Bertand Cloez

Probabilistic approaches for handling count-valued time sequences have attracted amounts of research attentions because their ability to infer explainable latent structures and to estimate uncertainties, and thus are especially suitable for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Jiahao Wang , Sikun Yang , Heinz Koeppl , Xiuzhen Cheng , Pengfei Hu , Guoming Zhang

We develop the idea of non-Markovian CTRW (continuous time random walk) approximation to the evolution of interacting particle systems, which leads to a general class of fractional kinetic measure-valued evolutions with variable order. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-07 Vassili N. Kolokoltsov , Marianna S. Troeva

In this paper, we consider a stochastic process that may experience random reset events which relocate the system to its starting position. We focus our attention on a one-dimensional, monotonic continuous-time random walk with a constant…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2017-10-11 Miquel Montero , Axel Masó-Puigdellosas , Javier Villarroel

.Stochastic models based on random diffusivities, such as the diffusing-diffusivity approach, are popular concepts for the description of non-Gaussian diffusion in heterogeneous media. Studies of these models typically focus on the moments…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-08-26 V. Sposini , D. S. Grebenkov , R. Metzler , G. Oshanin , F. Seno

We consider the task of generating discrete-time realisations of a nonlinear multivariate diffusion process satisfying an It\^o stochastic differential equation conditional on an observation taken at a fixed future time-point. Such…

Computation · Statistics 2016-04-26 Gavin A. Whitaker , Andrew Golightly , Richard J. Boys , Chris Sherlock

Motivated by L\'{e}vy's characterization of Brownian motion on the line, we propose an analogue of Brownian motion that has as its state space an arbitrary closed subset of the line that is unbounded above and below: such a process will be…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Shankar Bhamidi , Steven N. Evans , Ron Peled , Peter Ralph

A Brownian time process is a Markov process subordinated to the absolute value of an independent one-dimensional Brownian motion. Its transition densities solve an initial value problem involving the square of the generator of the original…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-25 Boris Baeumer , Mark M. Meerschaert , Erkan Nane

We consider a simple discrete-time Markov chain with values in $[0,\infty)^{Z^d}$. The Markov chain describes various interesting examples such as oriented percolation, directed polymers in random environment, time discretizations of binary…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-26 Nobuo Yoshida

There exist important stochastic physical processes involving infinite mean waiting times. The mean divergence has dramatic consequences on the process dynamics. Fractal time random walks, a diffusion process, and subrecoil laser cooling, a…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2015-06-24 F. Bardou

Approximations of fractional Brownian motion using Poisson processes whose parameter sets have the same dimensions as the approximated processes have been studied in the literature. In this paper, a special approximation to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-01-05 Yuqiang Li , Hongshuai Dai

In this article, we introduce Skellam process of order k and its running average. We also discuss the time-changed Skellam process of order k. In particular we discuss space-fractional Skellam process and tempered space-fractional Skellam…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-02 Neha Gupta , Arun Kumar , Nikolai Leonenko

We investigate the parameter recovery of Markov-switching ordinary differential processes from discrete observations, where the differential equations are nonlinear additive models. This framework has been widely applied in biological…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-03 Katherine Tsai , Mladen Kolar , Sanmi Koyejo

Renewal theory is finding increasing applications in non-equilibrium statistical physics. One example relates the probability density and survival probability of a Brownian particle or an active run-and-tumble particle with stochastic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-03-04 Paul C Bressloff

Fluctuations in a vast range of physical systems can be described as a superposition of uncorrelated pulses with a fixed shape, a process commonly referred to as a (generalized) shot noise or a filtered Poisson process. In this…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-05-09 Sajidah Ahmed , Odd Erik Garcia , Audun Theodorsen