Related papers: Qualitative properties of spatial epidemiological …
We investigate the role of migration patterns on the spread of epidemics in complex networks. We enhance the SIS-diffusion model on metapopulations to a nonlinear diffusion. Specifically, individuals move randomly over the network but at a…
We develop an extension of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovery (SIR) model to account for spatial variations in population as well as infection and recovery parameters. The equations are derived by taking the continuum limit of discrete…
Raw data on the cumulative number of deaths at a country level generally indicate a spatially variable distribution of the incidence of COVID-19 disease. An important issue is to determine whether this spatial pattern is a consequence of…
In this paper, we study the trajectory of a classic SIR epidemic on a family of dynamic random graphs of fixed size, whose set of edges continuously evolves over time. We set general infection and recovery times, and start the epidemic from…
We study dynamics of spread of epidemics of SIR type in a realistic spatially-explicit geographical region, Southern and Central Ontario, using census data obtained from Statistics Canada, and examine the role of population mixing in…
The compartmental models used to study epidemic spreading often assume the same susceptibility for all individuals, and are therefore, agnostic about the effects that differences in susceptibility can have on epidemic spreading. Here we…
The main purpose of this paper is to study the local dynamics and bifurcations of a discrete-time SIR epidemiological model. The existence and stability of disease-free and endemic fixed points are investigated along with a fairly complete…
Emerging marine infectious diseases pose a substantial threat to marine ecosystems and the conservation of their biodiversity. Compartmental models of epidemic transmission in marine sessile organisms, available only recently, are based on…
Networked SIR models have become essential workhorses in the modeling of epidemics, their inception, propagation and control. Here, and building on this venerable tradition, we report on the emergence of a remarkable self-organization of…
Characterizing the spatial extent of epidemics at the outbreak stage is key to controlling the evolution of the disease. At the outbreak, the number of infected individuals is typically small, so that fluctuations around their average are…
Transportation networks play a critical part in the spread of infectious diseases between populations. In this work, we define a networked susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered epidemic process with loss of immunity over time (SEIRS) that…
In this paper, we are concerned with two SIS epidemic reaction-diffusion models with mass action infection mechanism of the form $SI$, and study the spatial profile of population distribution as the movement rate of the infected individuals…
We study an infection-age structured epidemic model in which both the infectivity and the rate of loss of immunity depend on the time-since-infection. The model can be equivalently viewed as a nonlinear renewal equation for the incidence of…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
We propose a network behavioral-feedback Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model in which the interaction matrix describing the infection rates across subpopulations depends in feedback on the current epidemic state. This model…
We study extended infection fronts advancing over a spatially uniform susceptible population by solving numerically a diffusive Kermack McKendrick SIR model with a dichotomous spatially random transmission rate, in two dimensions. We find a…
We investigate SIR models with vital dynamics, reinfection, and randomness at the transmission coefficient and recruitment rate. Initially, we conduct an extensive analysis of the autonomous scenario, covering aspects such as local and…
Infectious disease superspreading caused by heterogeneity in contact behavior has been observed to be an important determinant of epidemic dynamics and size in both empirical and theoretical settings. However, it has also been observed that…
We study extensions of the classical SIR model of epidemic spread. First, we consider a single population modified SIR epidemics model in which the contact rate is allowed to be an arbitrary function of the fraction of susceptible and…
We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…