Related papers: Combining Population and Study Data for Inference …
In times of outbreaks, an essential requirement for better monitoring is the evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected individuals. An accurate estimate of this fraction is crucial for the assessment of the situation and the…
After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis…
The population-attributable fraction (PAF) is a popular epidemiological measure for the burden of a harmful exposure within a population. It is often interpreted causally as proportion of preventable cases after an elimination of exposure.…
There are many hard-to-reconcile numbers circulating concerning Covid-19. Using reports from random testing, the fatality ratio per infection is evaluated and used to extract further information on the actual fraction of infections and the…
Social networks are an important infrastructure for information, viruses and innovations propagation. Since users behavior has influenced by other users activity, some groups of people would be made regard to similarity of users interests.…
I use a very simple deterministic model for the spread of Covid-19 in a large population. Using this to compare the relative decay of the number of deaths per day between different regions in Italy, Spain and England, each applying in…
Using a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) meta-population model of disease transmission, we present analytical calculations and numerical simulations dissecting the interplay between stochasticity and the division of a…
Super-spreading events for infectious diseases occur when some infected individuals infect more than the average number of secondary cases. Several super-spreading individuals have been identified for the 2003 outbreak of severe acute…
The COVID-19 pandemic (SARS-CoV-2 virus) is the defying global health crisis of our time. The absence of mass testing and the relevant presence of asymptomatic individuals causes the available data of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil to be…
Virus transmission from person to person is an emergency event facing the global public. Early detection and isolation of potentially susceptible crowds can effectively control the epidemic of its disease. Existing metrics can not correctly…
An epidemic disease caused by a new coronavirus has spread in Northern Italy with a strong contagion rate. We implement an SEIR model to compute the infected population and number of casualties of this epidemic. The example may ideally…
The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modeling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a…
In regard to infectious diseases socioeconomic determinants are strongly associated with differential exposure and susceptibility however they are seldom accounted for by standard compartmental infectious disease models. These associations…
Although previous infection and vaccination provide protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, both reinfection and breakthrough infection are possible events whose occurrence would increase with time after first exposure to the antigen and…
Estimation of prevalence of undocumented SARS-CoV-2 infections is critical for understanding the overall impact of the Covid-19 disease. In fact, unveiling uncounted cases has fundamental implications for public policy interventions…
In this work, the spread of a contagious disease on a society where the individuals may take precautions is modeled. The primary assumption is that the infected individuals transmit the infection to the susceptible members of the community…
The infections and fatalities due to SARS-CoV-2 virus for cases specific to India have been studied using a deterministic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-dead (SEIRD) compartmental model. One of the most significant epidemiological…
The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is difficult to estimate because the number of infections is unknown and there is a lag between each infection and the potentially subsequent death. We introduce a new approach for estimating…
We are currently facing a highly critical case of a world-wide pandemic. The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, a.k.a. COVID-19) has proved to be extremely contagious and the original outbreak from Asia has now spread to all continents. This…
Individual contributions to the spread of an epidemic vary widely due to an individual's location in a social network and their intrinsic ability to spread or contract diseases. While the effect of heterogeneous population structure and…