Related papers: Probabilistic Multi-Step-Ahead Short-Term Water De…

Accurate wind power forecasts depend on reliable wind speed forecasts. Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs) utilize huge amounts of computing time, but still have rather low spatial and temporal resolution. However, stochastic wind speed…

Advancements in smart metering technologies have significantly improved the ability to monitor and manage water utilities. In the context of increasing uncertainty due to climate change, securing water resources and supply has emerged as an…

Multi-step time-series prediction is an essential supportive step for decision-makers in several industrial areas. Artificial intelligence techniques, which use a neural network component in various forms, have recently frequently been used…

Predicting the demand for electricity with uncertainty helps in planning and operation of the grid to provide reliable supply of power to the consumers. Machine learning (ML)-based demand forecasting approaches can be categorized into (1)…

A well-performing prediction model is vital for a recommendation system suggesting actions for energy-efficient consumer behavior. However, reliable and accurate predictions depend on informative features and a suitable model design to…

Demand forecasting is a crucial component of demand management. While shortening the forecasting horizon allows for more recent data and less uncertainty, this frequently means lower data aggregation levels and a more significant data…

Flow matching has recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for generative modeling and has been extended to probabilistic time series forecasting in latent spaces. However, the impact of the specific choice of probability path model on…

Pumped storage hydro units (PSHU) are great sources of flexibility in power systems. This is especially valuable in modern systems with increasing shares of intermittent renewable resources. However, the flexibility from PSHUs, particularly…

Machine and statistical learning algorithms can be reliably automated and applied at scale. Therefore, they can constitute a considerable asset for designing practical forecasting systems, such as those related to urban water demand.…

Time series forecasting serves as an essential tool for many real-world applications, supporting tasks such as resource optimization and decision-making. Despite significant architectural advancements, most modern models still treat…

Load forecasts have become an integral part of energy security. Due to the various influencing factors that can be considered in such a forecast, there is also a wide range of models that attempt to integrate these parameters into a system…

Many wind speed forecasting approaches have been proposed in literature. In this paper a new statistical approach for jointly predicting wind speed, wind direction and air pressure is introduced. The wind direction and the air pressure are…

We present a methodology for probabilistic load forecasting that is based on lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) estimation. The model considered can be regarded as a bivariate time-varying threshold autoregressive(AR)…

Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps…

Tanker water systems play critical role in providing adequate service to meet potable water demands in the face of acute water crisis in many cities globally. Managing tanker movements among the supply and demand sides requires an efficient…

Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern business decisions. In today's data-rich environment, people often aim to choose the optimal forecasting model for their data. However, identifying the optimal model…

Accurate demand forecasting is vital for ensuring reliable access to contraceptive products, supporting key processes like procurement, inventory, and distribution. However, forecasting contraceptive demand in developing countries presents…

Multistage stochastic programming provides a modeling framework for sequential decision-making problems that involve uncertainty. One typically overlooked aspect of this methodology is how uncertainty is incorporated into modeling.…

Atmospheric models used for weather and climate prediction are traditionally formulated in a deterministic manner. In other words, given a particular state of the resolved scale variables, the most likely forcing from the sub-grid scale…

With extreme weather events becoming more common, the risk posed by surface water flooding is ever increasing. In this work we propose a model, and associated Bayesian inference scheme, for generating probabilistic (high-resolution…