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Pharmacokinetic modeling using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) has an important role in dose optimization studies, where dosing must balance sustained therapeutic efficacy with the risk of adverse side effects. Such ODE models…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-30 Yuxuan Zhao , Samuel W. K. Wong

In recent years there has been an increasing interest in the use of relational event models for dynamic social network analysis. The basis of these models is the concept of an "event", defined as a triplet of time, sender, and receiver of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-24 Diana Karimova , Joris Mulder , Roger Th. A. J. Leenders

Pulse-modulated feedback is utilized in drug dosing to mimic sustained over a longer period of time manual discrete dose administration, the latter is in contrast with continuous drug infusion. The intermittent mode of dosing calls for a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-02-28 Alexander Medvedev , Anton V. Proskurnikov , Zhanybai T. Zhusubaliyev

We develop and analyze empirical Bayes Stein-type estimators for use in the estimation of causal effects in large-scale online experiments. While online experiments are generally thought to be distinguished by their large sample size, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-15 Drew Dimmery , Eytan Bakshy , Jasjeet Sekhon

Background: Pairwise and network meta-analyses using fixed effect and random effects models are commonly applied to synthesise evidence from randomised controlled trials. The models differ in their assumptions and the interpretation of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-04 Shijie Ren , Jeremy E. Oakley , John W. Stevens

Throughout the different phases of a drug development program, randomized trials are used to establish the tolerability, safety, and efficacy of a candidate drug. At each stage one aims to optimize the design of future studies by…

Applications · Statistics 2021-02-08 Sebastian Weber , Andrew Gelman , Daniel Lee , Michael Betancourt , Aki Vehtari , Amy Racine

We consider a real-world chemotherapy scheduling template design problem, where we cluster patient types into groups and find a representative time-slot duration for each group to accommodate all patient types assigned to that group, aiming…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-14 Qing Zhu , Xian Yu , Yu-Li Huang

We propose the BayesDose-Framework, a Bayesian approach for fast and accurate dose prediction in proton therapy. Our framework is based on a previously published deterministic LSTM model and is trained and evaluated on simulated beamlet…

Medical Physics · Physics 2023-07-04 Luke Voss , Ahmad Neishabouri , Tim Ortkamp , Andrea Mairani , Niklas Wahl

This study addresses the challenge of estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) for advertising campaigns in online marketplaces where complete randomized experimentation is infeasible. We propose two key innovations: (1) a shrinkage…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Yen-Chun Liu , Alexander Volfovsky , German Schnaidt , Cristobal Garib , Eric Laber

In this paper, a methodology is proposed that enables to analyze the sensitivity of the outcome of a therapy to unavoidable high dispersion of the patient specific parameters on one hand and to the choice of the parameters that define the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-05-17 Mazen Alamir

A 'Winner's Curse' arises in large-scale online experimentation platforms when the same experiments are used to both select treatments and evaluate their effects. In these settings, classical difference-in-means estimators of treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 Richard Mudd , Rina Friedberg , Ilya Gorbachev , Houssam Nassif , Abbas Zaidi

Adoptive Cell Transfer therapy of cancer is currently in full development and mathematical modeling is playing a critical role in this area. We study a stochastic model developed by Baar et al. in 2015 for modeling immunotherapy against…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-03-09 Modibo Diabate , Loren Coquille , Adeline Samson

The traditional model specification of stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trials assumes a homogeneous treatment effect across time while adjusting for fixed-time effects. However, when treatment effects vary over time, the constant effect…

Model-assisted designs have garnered significant attention in recent years due to their high accuracy in identifying the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and their operational simplicity. To identify the MTD, they employ estimated dose limiting…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-19 Rentaro Wakayama , Tomotaka Momozaki , Shuji Ando

The recently published ICH E9 addendum on estimands in clinical trials provides a framework for precisely defining the treatment effect that is to be estimated, but says little about estimation methods. Here we report analyses of a clinical…

Applications · Statistics 2023-09-25 Camila Olarte Parra , Rhian M. Daniel , David Wright , Jonathan W. Bartlett

Estimands using the treatment policy strategy for addressing intercurrent events are common in Phase III clinical trials. One estimation approach for this strategy is retrieved dropout whereby observed data following an intercurrent event…

Response-adaptive randomization (RAR) methods can be used to adapt randomization probabilities based on accumulating data, aiming to increase the probability of allocating patients to effective treatments. A popular RAR method is Thompson…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Samuel Pawel , Leonhard Held

We propose a novel Bayesian model selection technique on linear mixed-effects models to compare multiple treatments with a control. A fully Bayesian approach is implemented to estimate the marginal inclusion probabilities that provide a…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-28 Lei Gong , James M. Flegal , Stephen R. Spindler , Patricia L. Mote

Stochastic, spatial reaction-diffusion simulations have been widely used in systems biology and computational neuroscience. However, the increasing scale and complexity of simulated models and morphologies have exceeded the capacity of any…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2016-10-10 Weiliang Chen , Erik De Schutter

Experimentation is widely utilized for causal inference and data-driven decision-making across disciplines. In an A/B experiment, for example, an online business randomizes two different treatments (e.g., website designs) to their customers…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-15 Wenxuan Guo , JungHo Lee , Panos Toulis